Who has a good handle on the playoff scenarios?

[djswit]

The espn playoff machine is pretty cool.

As far as I see it, a giants loss today is nearly a must. Two giants losses might afford us a home loss vs the dreaded, hated packers. We won't need the second loss.

Hard to tell who else we root for. Seattle losing helps, especially if they lose twice - could move up tp 5 seed.

Chicago is uneventful but a loss vs cards puts them out.

I think we want Washington to beat Dallas next week but not in all scenarios.

Go Ravens!!!

[Mothman]

Kevin Siefert has doen his best to outline the playoff scenarios here:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... the-moment

GB will be alive for the #2 seed next week so the Vikes will probably have to beat their starters... and they will.

[Demi]

So it's looking like everything is going our way so far. I need someone to clarify if giants lose today and we win next week were in right?

That's what PFT posted last night.

[J. Kapp 11]

Well, at this point we control our own destiny. The two teams that needed to lose, Dallas and New York, did (well, the Giants are about to lose). We would get the tiebreaker over the Bears because our division record would be better.

It's not out of the question that we could jump ahead of Seattle for #5. The Seahawks would have to lose out, but with SF and STL on the docket, that's not impossible.

[Mothman]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... or-vikings

The Vikings can advance in one of two ways. The easiest will be to defeat the Packers at the Metrodome on Sunday. That will give them a 10-6 record and one of the NFC's wild-card spots.

If they lose to the Packers, the Vikings can get in at 9-7 if the following results occur in Week 17:
The New York Giants lose to the Philadelphia Eagles
The Washington Redskins beat Dallas Cowboys
The Bears lose to the Detroit Lions

[doa2k]

Week 17: Win and we're in!

Who would have thought that before the season started?

[PurpleHalo]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... or-vikings

Umm no, if the skins win next week, they will be 10-6, so to make this scenario work, Seattle would need to lose tonight, and next week. But do the Vikings own a tiebreaker over Seattle? Both Seattle and the Vikings would have 6-6 conference records, but Seattle beat the Vikings.


Okay, Im an idiot nvm, thanks Saint33.

[saint33]

Umm no, if the skins win next week, they will be 10-6, so to make this scenario work, Seattle would need to lose tonight, and next week. But do the Vikings own a tiebreaker over Seattle? Both Seattle and the Vikings would have 6-6 conference records, but Seattle beat the Vikings.

Washington wins their division in this scenario

[cstelter]

I'm going off the cuff-- I find it kind of a puzzle to sort out playoff scenarios and I love puzzles so this is for fun-- I could easily be wrong though...

The key is that if the Vikings win next week they will be 10-6 and will finish ahead the non-division winning east teams and will own the tie breaker over CHI assuring them of a #6 seed.

If SEA loses 2, we could then move up to the #5 seed.

So the most interesting thing is what has to happen for us to *lose* next week and still make the playoffs. I think the answer to that is NYG, DAL, and CHI all have to lose too. I think that is the only scenario where we can end up the #6 seed.


Below are my chicken scratchings that lead me to this idea:

The 3 teams in the East are current 9-6, 8-7, 8-7. WAS plays DAL next week. NYG has split with both DAL and WAS but WAS is currently 1-0 vs DAL

Scenario 1: WAS wins.
--> in this case WAS wins the East at 10-6. DAL is 8-8 and the best NYG can do is 9-7.
Scenario 1.1: NYG Loses
--> If WAS wins and NYG loses, DAL and NYG are tied at 8-8. Both SEA (9-5 right now and MIN 9-6 right now) would be ahead of them for WC, neither east team will factor into the playoffs.
Scenario 1.2: NYG Wins
--> If WAS wins and NYG Wins, then NYG is 9-7 with a 7 win conference record which puts them ahead of us should we wind up 9-7 with a 6 win conference record, so we must win next week to beat this scenario.

Scenario 2: WAS loses
--> In ths case, WAS ends up 9-7 as does DAL.
Scenario 2.1: NYG Loses
--> in this scenario, WAS and DAL are tied Head to head, and are both 4-2 in the division. WAS played MIN and STL and went 1-1 while DAL played CHI and SEA and lost both, giving DAL a better record for common games and thus they win the division. This leaves WAS at 9-7 with a tiebreaker over us, so we must win next week to beat this scenario.
Scenario 2.2: NYG Wins
--> In this scenario All 3 teams tie at 9-7 and all teams have split with each other head to head. NYG are eliminated becuase they are only 3-3 in the division and DAL wins the division under the same reasoning as 2.1. Again, we need a win next week to beat this scenario.

So next week, our best help is for WAS to win and NYG to lose. This is the only scenario I found to allow us to lose and still make the playoffs.

If we tie CHI either at 9-7 or 10-6, we have a one game advantage in division competition giving us a tiebreaker. If CHI wins and we lose, we lose the spot to CHI. So for us to lose next week, CHI must also lose.

If SEA wins tonight they will be 10-6 will beat all other teams in any scenario above since only WAS, MN or CHI could go 10-6 WAS will win their division if they do and SEA beat both CHI and MIN head to head. SEA clinches the #5 wildcard if they win tonight or next week.

If SEA loses 2 and ends up tied with us at 9-7, we still lose the #5 to them because of head to head and we still need CHI+NYG+DAL to all lose to claim the #6

[John_Viveiros]

One interesting thing about the week 17 schedule is that we have the 4 pm EST slot all to ourselves among the teams we are challenging for the last spot. The Bears and Giants play at 1 pm EST, and the Redskins/Cowboys game is at night. So we'll have a pretty good handle (as fans) before the game whether we will have to win or maybe not, since the Skins are a hot team and Dallas is struggling and I expect the Skins to take that game.

[w_huisman]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... or-vikings

"The Vikings can advance in one of two ways...."

(1) "The easiest will be to defeat the Packers at the Metrodome on Sunday....."

(2) "If they lose to the Packers, the Vikings can get in at 9-7 if the following (three) results occur in Week 17:"

• (2a) The Giants lose to the Eagles
  (2b) The Cowboys lose to the Redskins
  (2c) The Bears lose to the Lions

[Eli]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... or-vikings

"The Vikings can advance in one of two ways...."

(1) "The easiest will be to defeat the Packers at the Metrodome on Sunday....."

(2) "If they lose to the Packers, the Vikings can get in at 9-7 if the following (three) results occur in Week 17:"

• (2a) The Giants lose to the Eagles
  (2b) The Cowboys lose to the Redskins
  (2c) The Bears lose to the Lions

One more, from what I've read:

(3) The Vikings tie and the Bears lose or tie.

Imagine this scenario: The Bears lose the early game and the Vikings and Packers go into OT with a tie. The Vikings could play for a tie to win the final playoff spot.

[headless_norseman]

Handle this: The Vikes are a playoff team.

Next week this team (of ours) gets a chance at redemption to when we lost on their home grounds.

Chances are, we end up playing in Atlanta.......and they are beatable. Just like Texas was shown to be.




* Percy, we miss you.

[VltrophyXLV]

Should the Vikings beat the Packers(which I expect the Packers will win just like last time)the following week the Vikings would have to travel back to Lambeau. After the Packers win bears must win to get in

[VltrophyXLV]

I've figured, Washington is playing well, so they deserve to be in the playoffs, Seattle has played at a level that they may lose to SF (and they might win too) but Seattle will surely beat the Rams next week... so Seattle looks to be the other wild card no matter what. So, Bears and Giants are the major concern, Cowboys in with a shot. If Dallas beat the Redskins next week, I guess they would both be 9-7.

If by chance the 49ers loose to the Cardinals & the Seahawks win then the hawks win the west & the 49ers are the 5th seed