Improved secondary: parallel situation WR

[Texas Vike]

Not sure about where this thread is heading right now??? To the OP ideas, I agree on the improvement in the Secondary. For the WR to improve next season I think it is only going to happen is one of 3 things happen:

1.) Childs comes back strong
2.) They sign a beast in FA
3.) They get 1st round talent that is exceptional in his first year

To be honest, #3 is perhaps the most seductive, but also the hardest to hit on. Most WR take a season or two to develop. My guess is that in 2013 our improvement at this position will need to come from guys drafted in 2012 not 2013. Unfortunately, I think Childs, assuming he comes back, is more likely to be a year behind. That leaves an FA signing, which I think is unlikely since they are going to have to give Harvin a big time contract.

Simpson and Carlson both showed some life yesterday so another possible option is that Simpson and Carlson come back in 2013 and are healthy for the full season. The more I think about it, the more some combination of the 2012 FA/Draft guys is the most likely avenue for us to see immediate impact barring a big FA signing. (that is part of how the Secondary got better as well) Spielman has also made statements on occaision that this will be their preferred direction. Not very splashy, but in the long run it is the preferred route to take assuming these guys can get better and become playmakers.
No clear direction right now.

Thanks for addressing the issue and for reading and comprehending the initial post! I hadn't anticipated that being such a tall task.

I fear that the Vikings may not be active enough or may not be as concerned as they should be about their lack of talent at WR. I'd really like them to draft one in the first 2 rounds and take a good look at FAs. Carlson came out of nowhere yesterday and showed some energy (he may have overplayed that first down he made with so much celebration, but I like to see him pumped up... heck I like to simply see him make a catch for the price we paid for him!)

With the secondary I recall reading that someone from a division rival made some brutally honest comments to Frazier about how pathetic our players were; I hope that Frazier similarly realizes just how deficient we are at WR.

[mansquatch]

I think the front office/ coaches are quite aware of the issues with the current crop. I just do not think it is easy as sign guy X and bang the situation is solved. There are differences with this group. Consider:
I would say the Vikings are set up as follows for 2013:

WR: Wright/ ???
Slot: PH
TE: KR
TE: JC/AR/RE (ideally, JC becomes more of the passing threat he was in the past)
WR: ???

So a few things. I know I’m making assumptions about some of the positions. Obviously if you run a single TE set, then you need 3-4 WR on an all-out spread passing down. I went 2 TE since until something changes, that is the stated direction of Musgrave. I think we are set at TE, so the point is mostly moot.

For the WR, we have PH and Wright and ???. The first question to answer IMO is what kind of WR we want. Let’s assume we keep JS around for another season. (I think this is likely because he’ll be cheap and they seem to like him aside from the health issues.) That means they have the freak that is PH who is an elite, special player. However, PH is short and fast, very shifty. That is his game. Wright is a speedster, but not exceptionally tall. Simpson is a taller, speed type guy. Not the greatest hands, but a threat to stretch the field with his speed.

So what is missing? IMO, and I know there are different thoughts on this, we are missing the big body possession guy. We’ve got 3 guys who can burn. The X-Factor is Rudolph has become more or less the team’s possession receiver. I think he suffers because without Harvin on the field, teams are focusing on covering him. As we’ve said all season long we need someone else to get open. IMO, this is the first question. What do they want the other WR to be? Do they want the big body guy or is that the role of the TE? (seems to be) So then do they want a burner, a guy who can stretch the field and make teams pay if they run single high S too often. Dare I say that those guys might already be on the team? It would seem the Wright and JS both fit this mold.

If the answer to this is yes, they want gas on the outside, then it begs a rather controversial question: If the follow are our starters in 2013:

Simpson/Wright
PH
KR
JC
Do we really need a big time WR signing?

IMO, the off season activity on the receivers is more about what the team thinks about two things:

1.) Can they get Harvin resigned and happy.
2.) What do they think they have in JS and JC.

#1 is obviously critical. #2 is much more interesting. If the Vikings think those two players are the answer my guess is we will not see any FA signings and may not see WR as a 1st round selection. This is just an opinion, but I think if we see them avoid FA it will tell us a lot about what the FO think (right or wrong) they have in JS/JC. In retrospect, I think Spielman tried for a Hat Trick: Fix the OL/Secondary/ WR in one offseason. Injuries to JC/JS plus potential for both of them to be “busts” seems to have derailed the WR aspect of that, although I’d say he hit pretty well in the Secondary and the OL. (OL could still use some help.)

For those who will be tempted to flame. I’m not saying JS/JC are the answer. I’m just outlining a scenario where it might tell us that the coaches THINK those two guys are the answers. All hypothetical at this point, but a very interesting situation.

[mansquatch]

Those are my general sentiments, but I have a hard time reconcilling that with having Rudolph on the field. Rudolph is a more or less a "big tall WR with ball skills." So does a team with that body on the field need a Mike Wallace or Brandon Marshall type player vs. a burner? Especially when you have AP in the mix and PH? I'm just not 100% on that right now. The more I think about it, the more I wonder if the plan is have 2 TE be the possession receivers and the WR be there to stretch the field.

I'm not sure on anything at this point just hypothesizing.

[Texas Vike]

I think the front office/ coaches are quite aware of the issues with the current crop. I just do not think it is easy as sign guy X and bang the situation is solved. There are differences with this group. Consider:
I would say the Vikings are set up as follows for 2013:

WR: Wright/ ???
Slot: PH
TE: KR
TE: JC/AR/RE (ideally, JC becomes more of the passing threat he was in the past)
WR: ???

So a few things. I know I’m making assumptions about some of the positions. Obviously if you run a single TE set, then you need 3-4 WR on an all-out spread passing down. I went 2 TE since until something changes, that is the stated direction of Musgrave. I think we are set at TE, so the point is mostly moot.

For the WR, we have PH and Wright and ???. The first question to answer IMO is what kind of WR we want. Let’s assume we keep JS around for another season. (I think this is likely because he’ll be cheap and they seem to like him aside from the health issues.) That means they have the freak that is PH who is an elite, special player. However, PH is short and fast, very shifty. That is his game. Wright is a speedster, but not exceptionally tall. Simpson is a taller, speed type guy. Not the greatest hands, but a threat to stretch the field with his speed.

So what is missing? IMO, and I know there are different thoughts on this, we are missing the big body possession guy. We’ve got 3 guys who can burn. The X-Factor is Rudolph has become more or less the team’s possession receiver. I think he suffers because without Harvin on the field, teams are focusing on covering him. As we’ve said all season long we need someone else to get open. IMO, this is the first question. What do they want the other WR to be? Do they want the big body guy or is that the role of the TE? (seems to be) So then do they want a burner, a guy who can stretch the field and make teams pay if they run single high S too often. Dare I say that those guys might already be on the team? It would seem the Wright and JS both fit this mold.

If the answer to this is yes, they want gas on the outside, then it begs a rather controversial question: If the follow are our starters in 2013:

Simpson/Wright
PH
KR
JC
Do we really need a big time WR signing?

IMO, the off season activity on the receivers is more about what the team thinks about two things:

1.) Can they get Harvin resigned and happy.
2.) What do they think they have in JS and JC.

#1 is obviously critical. #2 is much more interesting. If the Vikings think those two players are the answer my guess is we will not see any FA signings and may not see WR as a 1st round selection. This is just an opinion, but I think if we see them avoid FA it will tell us a lot about what the FO think (right or wrong) they have in JS/JC. In retrospect, I think Spielman tried for a Hat Trick: Fix the OL/Secondary/ WR in one offseason. Injuries to JC/JS plus potential for both of them to be “busts” seems to have derailed the WR aspect of that, although I’d say he hit pretty well in the Secondary and the OL. (OL could still use some help.)

For those who will be tempted to flame. I’m not saying JS/JC are the answer. I’m just outlining a scenario where it might tell us that the coaches THINK those two guys are the answers. All hypothetical at this point, but a very interesting situation.

This is the exact scenario that I fear: that they coaches think they already have the guys they need. IMO, that would indicate a lack of awareness about how deficient we are at the position.

We need more talent. I'd say a minimum of two new WRs that could make an immediate impact. We are in a similar situation w/ WR as we were last year w/ the secondary. Cook's personal issue took him off the field, some guys got hurt (Hussain, Ced), and suddenly we're starting a group of guys that are just atrocious. Same situation this year at WR: Simpon's hurt, Carlson's hurt, Child's is hurt... biggest of all, Percy's hurt. So we field guys like Aroma, Jenkins and Burton.

[Texas Vike]

We need a big tall WR with ball skills. He doesn't have to be Mike Wallace fast but at least fast enough to get down the field. Think Sidney Rice.

I agree with this. A less injury-prone Sid would be ideal.

[smoothoperator]

less injury prone sid rice would be bowe. big, strong, faster than sid (sid is incredibly slow) and can go up and get a ball. i think if our wr core was bowe, harvin and simpson next year, things would be drastically different in the passing game.

[PurpleKoolaid]

The WRs we have now would improve instantly with a real QB. Why waste money ot picks on them when our PoS QB cant hit the open receivers we have now? Mayve get a few guards that can pass protect. WRs, nah.

[mansquatch]

This is the exact scenario that I fear: that they coaches think they already have the guys they need. IMO, that would indicate a lack of awareness about how deficient we are at the position.

We need more talent. I'd say a minimum of two new WRs that could make an immediate impact. We are in a similar situation w/ WR as we were last year w/ the secondary. Cook's personal issue took him off the field, some guys got hurt (Hussain, Ced), and suddenly we're starting a group of guys that are just atrocious. Same situation this year at WR: Simpon's hurt, Carlson's hurt, Child's is hurt... biggest of all, Percy's hurt. So we field guys like Aroma, Jenkins and Burton.

I take a different view on this subject than this. (sorry to single you out, there were many posts with this line of thinking, you just quoted mine so you were the winner )

If you look at JC and JS for just their on field production in 2012, then yes, they are terroble and should be replaced. I wasn't arguing otherwise. My thought process is more to ask why they were bad? We know that Frasier has openly stated that JS is not the same player since his back injury. Spielman has said he expects JC to be a much bigger contributor in 2013. The question in both cases is why they were bad in 2012. If it was injury related, then is it possible that they will be considerably better in 2013. We have no way of knowing if this is true.

What I was stating was that if they do not sign anyone it, IMO, signals that the FO thinks that these two guys (assuming they are retained) have much more to show on the field. I actually consider this the ideal situation. (assumign they pan out.) Harvin is going to get a monster contract which means it is unlikely they will give big FA $$$ to a WR.

I think the way their skill players are laid it also makes it unlikely for them to go the big body type WR. If they want to pass with two TE, tehy end up with this set up:

Slot: PH
TE: KR
TE: JC (or one of backups)
WR: ?

The question for me that adds clarity here is that if JC is productive in 2013, that means you have two possession type guys on the field and one shifty / speed guy. So what do you want in the last slot? Another hands guy or a field stretcher? The more I think about it, the more I think they want to burner. Again, just one guy's opinion.

[Texas Vike]

I take a different view on this subject than this. (sorry to single you out, there were many posts with this line of thinking, you just quoted mine so you were the winner )

If you look at JC and JS for just their on field production in 2012, then yes, they are terroble and should be replaced. I wasn't arguing otherwise. My thought process is more to ask why they were bad? We know that Frasier has openly stated that JS is not the same player since his back injury. Spielman has said he expects JC to be a much bigger contributor in 2013. The question in both cases is why they were bad in 2012. If it was injury related, then is it possible that they will be considerably better in 2013. We have no way of knowing if this is true.

What I was stating was that if they do not sign anyone it, IMO, signals that the FO thinks that these two guys (assuming they are retained) have much more to show on the field. I actually consider this the ideal situation. (assumign they pan out.) Harvin is going to get a monster contract which means it is unlikely they will give big FA $$$ to a WR.

I think the way their skill players are laid it also makes it unlikely for them to go the big body type WR. If they want to pass with two TE, tehy end up with this set up:

Slot: PH
TE: KR
TE: JC (or one of backups)
WR: ?

The question for me that adds clarity here is that if JC is productive in 2013, that means you have two possession type guys on the field and one shifty / speed guy. So what do you want in the last slot? Another hands guy or a field stretcher? The more I think about it, the more I think they want to burner. Again, just one guy's opinion.

I think your reasoning is sound. You've substantiated your arguments with references to things coaches and front office have said in the press about Simpson and Carlson. I agree that a big move in FA is unlikely, given the looming contract negotiations with Percy. I have to think, though, that they will look to draft one or two WRs on the first day of the draft. It is the most economically sound way to bolster the position. If Childs can come back, great. But we can't count on him or Simpson to really be the answer. Jenkins, Aroma and Burton are completely disposable, IMO.

From what I've seen I like Justin Hunter (TENN) for our first rd pick.

We need an OG in the first 4 rounds too. Then we can see if Ponder can make the passing attack work. I am assuming that they will give Ponder one more year at least.

[mansquatch]

The difference is Rudolph can't stretch the field he's not fast enough. Sidney Rice isn't fast as far as WR go but it's enough to stretch the field and make a play whether that be beating a guy by less than a half of step or just going up and and making a play on the ball.

Marshall is like that too.

I understand the difference, my point was whether or not given their current alignment it seems plausible to have a guy like that on the field. Given how they use Harvin, my guess is they'd go for speed. Again, just a hypothesis.

[mansquatch]

[

I think your reasoning is sound. You've substantiated your arguments with references to things coaches and front office have said in the press about Simpson and Carlson. I agree that a big move in FA is unlikely, given the looming contract negotiations with Percy. I have to think, though, that they will look to draft one or two WRs on the first day of the draft. It is the most economically sound way to bolster the position. If Childs can come back, great. But we can't count on him or Simpson to really be the answer. Jenkins, Aroma and Burton are completely disposable, IMO.

From what I've seen I like Justin Hunter (TENN) for our first rd pick.

We need an OG in the first 4 rounds too. Then we can see if Ponder can make the passing attack work. I am assuming that they will give Ponder one more year at least.

I actually think there is a strong possibility they'll go OL or DL in the 1st round. Very hard to predict right now given that order is not yet known and neither is FA. However, Linemen on both sides look to be a strength of this draft so it isn't a stretch to think that is where they'll find the best value. I'd be shocked if they reached on a WR. I do agree we'll see some receiving talent picked somehwere on Day 1, I just do not think it will be as soon as everyone wants it to be. It would also not be a suprise to see them go after a QB on day 1.

[mondry]

It's possible we have the personnel already on the roster to have a much improved passing game next year. If we look strictly at history and the numbers with everyone performing at their maximum it'd look something like this

WR - Simpson 725
WR - Wright - 400
Slot - Harvin 1205
TE - Rudolph 500
TE - JC 627
RB - AD / Gerhart - 400

3857 yards - pretty respectable if you throw in 2000 yards from AD. How does this happen? Simpson has to get healthy and return to his best season he had in Cinci, 725 yards which is some what low for a #2 WR but acceptable in our offense. Harvin has to stay healthy so he can actually get to the 1205 mark he was on pace for. John Carlson needs to be healthy and return to his best year in seattle at 627. Wright continues to improve and get more snaps. Rudolph stays the same, he's on pace for 500, same for AD / gerhart combo.

This is a best case scenario that also relies on no one getting hurt, it's possible but I really don't think we should rely on it. If ANYONE goes down it means someone like Jenkins or Aroma comes in, ick!

Now let's say you replace Wright with D.Bowe

Adding his avg per game to his current yardage for the last 2 is about 925

WR - Bowe 925
WR - Simpson 725
Slot - Harvin 1205
TE - Rudolph 500
TE - JC 627
RB - AD / Gerhart 400

4382 receiving yards.

I like this situation a lot, I think Ponder will perform better with as many possession guys as possible who can still get open. Even if Rudolph and Carlson fit that role, I think Harvin and a healthy Simpson give us enough speed where a guy like Bowe will dominate. Wright can come off the bench if someone gets hurt or under performs.

Obviously the stats will probably decline, too many mouths to feed but I think that's the way to go. If Bowe is unattainable then a draftee in that mold. I believe with Peterson though we don't need more speed, we need guys that can just MOVE THE CHAINS when it's 3rd and 4+. In short yardage if you have to attain for AD, Rudolph, carlson, and Bowe that's a lot of big guys to account for.

In the end, it's completely possible our passing game could improve a ton simply by having guys get healthy and some experience. But if you look at our defense this year, not only did they get healthy, but they added Harrison Smith, a big time play maker. I think a similar story could play out with our offense!

[Delaqure]

I really do think one good addition to this receiving core would really be what we need. I think it is difficult to really say how good Wright is at this point. Most WR's out of college take around 3 years to really come into their own. Wright is just beginning his career. It is also hard to say just how much the injuries have effected their play. We may be surprised at Simpsons performance once healthy and same with Carleson. We just don't know. But even with them healthy Simpson still is not a true #1. Neither is Wright at this point. A true #1 guy could elevate everyone's performance. (Providing he doesn't get hurt, which seems to plague our receivers. We just can't seem to keep these guys healthy.)

I've said this in a previous post, but we are more likely to find a really good receiver than we are to find a really good QB next year. Let's upgrade the WR significantly and it will help whomever is our QB next year.

[Dark]

I really do think one good addition to this receiving core would really be what we need. I think it is difficult to really say how good Wright is at this point. Most WR's out of college take around 3 years to really come into their own. Wright is just beginning his career. It is also hard to say just how much the injuries have effected their play. We may be surprised at Simpsons performance once healthy and same with Carleson. We just don't know. But even with them healthy Simpson still is not a true #1. Neither is Wright at this point. A true #1 guy could elevate everyone's performance. (Providing he doesn't get hurt, which seems to plague our receivers. We just can't seem to keep these guys healthy.)

I've said this in a previous post, but we are more likely to find a really good receiver than we are to find a really good QB next year. Let's upgrade the WR significantly and it will help whomever is our QB next year.

I agree. I think we need a big strong guy like Calvin Johnson who has a great reach, towers over people, and can catch a long ball. Ponder is yet to have a WR like that in his career, so I think that could help him.

[Mothman]

This has been a good thread so far. There's been some great, intelligent discussion!

I agree that a big free agent signing like Bowe may be unlikely if they sign Harvin to a new deal. I'm not if they can afford to give two WRs top 10 pay and that's probably what it would take to make that happen.

I expect Carlson to get another year to show he can actually make a more substantial contribution. At WR, I'm not sure the choice between big-bodied possession receiver or speed receiver is really that significant since many WRs fall somewhere between those two categories or fit both. For example, Calvin Johnson is fast and can make those possession catches but players like that are obviously hard to find. They bottom line is they need a good-sized, skilled playmaker on the outside. Harvin and Wright give the Vikes speed but they don't give them the height to make big catches in traffic down the field. Speedy receivers are great if the skills are there but "fast enough" (Ie: Sidney Rice's speed) will work just fine with the right skill set. CC wasn't the burner Moss was but he could beat defenders deep and brought skills to the table that were in some ways more important. The Vikes need an outside receiver their QB can rely on, a player that creates genuine matchup problems. How he creates those matchup problems is less important than his ability to create them.

That's my take anyway...

Jim