Christian Ponder: Man on an island

[dead_poet]

I was looking through here and didn't see any posts on Ponder so I thought I'd better start a new thread.

Anyway, this is a pretty accurate, honest and fair article detailing Ponder to this point. Note: it's not very flattering.

Eventually, the Vikings reasoned, the growing pains would lessen and Ponder's intelligence, athleticism and leadership ability would propel the offense forward.

But now, it appears, Ponder's errors might be habitual -- all the ill-advised interceptions, that skittishness in the pocket, the apparent lack of confidence in both himself and his receivers.

So where do the Vikings go from here?

Suddenly, a squad that barged into the playoff picture with a 5-2 start is left facing a finishing stretch that's quickly losing significance.

As always has been the plan, Ponder likely will finish this season as the starter. But can he truly get past his recent regression and mature into a difference-maker? Or is the Vikings' trust in the second-year quarterback nothing but blind faith?

As the debate heats up, here are seven things to consider about No. 7:

Sure, it's fair to say that without Percy Harvin the Vikings have a receiving corps more ordinary than any other in the NFL. And maybe all those dropped passes during the Week 12 loss in Chicago still had Ponder spooked. But on several occasions, Frazier noticed a worrisome hesitation.

"Sometimes you have to throw the ball when guys come out of their breaks," Frazier said. "In our league, it's not very often guys are going to be wide open. So when we say throw it on time, on time means when the guy comes out of his break, deliver the football."

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... ml?refer=y

[mondry]

Last year I stated my biggest fear with Ponder was that it seemed like if we let him run engine full throttle he has okay to solid production but in the process commits far too many turnovers for it to be worthwhile. However, if you just ask him to manage the game, we would get a sub 150 yard passing performance.

This year the coaching staff clearly understood the former and rather than let him go unleashed, decided to build the entire offense around very short passes and low risk. Personally I think this was a mistake, I'd rather see Ponder's full potential, and either let him out grow the mistakes, or prove he can't.

Of course hindsight is 20/20 but we're seeing now that even when they ask him to play it safe and manage the game he can't do it, and his production is ALSO sub 150 yards passing. This outcome has lead to the worst of both worlds for the minnesota vikings passing game.

Take Andrew Luck for example, he threw 3 picks last game, one more than Ponder! However they don't have any training wheels on Luck, he also passed for close to 400 yards and 4 TDs! Most coaches know you have to take the bad with the good and hope the player continues to grow. As bad as Ponder has been, I'm not sure any QB could really succeed inside this offense with the same mentality.

This is not a defend ponder post, quite frankly I think he sucks and will never fully cut down on his turnovers, good production or not. However I just wanted to say that I also think the people in charge have royally #### up and this should be proof enough that they do not know how to develop a young QB. They routinely say that this season was "never about the post season" and it's all about seeing what Ponder has. So then I ask, why the dumbed downed 5 yard passing offense? Either it's because you lack faith in your own QB (no wonder the kid has no confidence) or you're incompetent, neither are a good sign for the Vikes.

As far as Ponder himself, I believe he is actually more of a gunslinger than we have been lead to belief. When he's successful it's much more because he's playing like Favre or Cutler, not over thinking, not worrying about the downside and much less because he's managing the game like a brad johnson. The coaching staff has tried to force him into that brad johnson roll and it's just not for him, I believe this is why he's so mind #### right now. He's trying to play on "smarts" because hey, he's a smart quarterback. But this is football, and football is played on instincts, which they aren't letting Ponder use... until they simply take over. An example of that is his bad cross body interception, it was one of the dumbest decisions imaginable and every QB worth anything knows you don't do that, especially a "smart" one! Yet it was something Favre did, something I've seen Cutler do, and it's "in" Ponder. IF ponder were to become our franchise QB (and it's a big IF) it's because he'd be allowed to attack and play like Jay Cutler. Weather he could cut down on his mistakes and turnovers or not is another question, but I am 100% convinced he sucks as a game manager and think the coaches have vastly overestimated his "smart" label to succeed in that role and improperly diagnosed their QB's game / strengths.

The #1 problem is, Christian Ponder is a gunslinger folks, not a game manager. This video (from another thread, but it fits pretty well here for my point) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVVGRReRfhY show's that with a flick of the wrist ponder can throw the ball 25 yards on target, no problem and he's throwing it to the same guys. (Aside from shiancoe) Only difference is the handcuffs are on now.

[Mothman]

Last year I stated my biggest fear with Ponder was that it seemed like if we let him run engine full throttle he has okay to solid production but in the process commits far too many turnovers for it to be worthwhile. However, if you just ask him to manage the game, we would get a sub 150 yard passing performance.

This year the coaching staff clearly understood the former and rather than let him go unleashed, decided to build the entire offense around very short passes and low risk. Personally I think this was a mistake, I'd rather see Ponder's full potential, and either let him out grow the mistakes, or prove he can't.

Of course hindsight is 20/20 but we're seeing now that even when they ask him to play it safe and manage the game he can't do it, and his production is ALSO sub 150 yards passing. This outcome has lead to the worst of both worlds for the minnesota vikings passing game.

Take Andrew Luck for example, he threw 3 picks last game, one more than Ponder! However they don't have any training wheels on Luck, he also passed for close to 400 yards and 4 TDs! Most coaches know you have to take the bad with the good and hope the player continues to grow. As bad as Ponder has been, I'm not sure any QB could really succeed inside this offense with the same mentality.

This is not a defend ponder post, quite frankly I think he sucks and will never fully cut down on his turnovers, good production or not. However I just wanted to say that I also think the people in charge have royally #### up and this should be proof enough that they do not know how to develop a young QB. They routinely say that this season was "never about the post season" and it's all about seeing what Ponder has. So then I ask, why the dumbed downed 5 yard passing offense? Either it's because you lack faith in your own QB (no wonder the kid has no confidence) or you're incompetent, neither are a good sign for the Vikes.

I think a lack of faith in their receivers was probably a factor for the Vikes too. They may have been trying to use quick-developing plays to help their o-line as well. To some extent, the choice to use a short, high percentage passing offense was probably about Ponder but I don't think he was the only factor and although I'm frustrated with Musgrave, I definitely don't believe he's incompetent.

As far as Ponder himself, I believe he is actually more of a gunslinger than we have been lead to belief. When he's successful it's much more because he's playing like Favre or Cutler, not over thinking, not worrying about the downside and much less because he's managing the game like a brad johnson. The coaching staff has tried to force him into that brad johnson roll and it's just not for him, I believe this is why he's so mind #### right now. He's trying to play on "smarts" because hey, he's a smart quarterback. But this is football, and football is played on instincts, which they aren't letting Ponder use... until they simply take over. An example of that is his bad cross body interception, it was one of the dumbest decisions imaginable and every QB worth anything knows you don't do that, especially a "smart" one! Yet it was something Favre did, something I've seen Cutler do, and it's "in" Ponder. IF ponder were to become our franchise QB (and it's a big IF) it's because he'd be allowed to attack and play like Jay Cutler. Weather he could cut down on his mistakes and turnovers or not is another question, but I am 100% convinced he sucks as a game manager and think the coaches have vastly overestimated his "smart" label to succeed in that role and improperly diagnosed their QB's game / strengths.

The #1 problem is, Christian Ponder is a gunslinger folks, not a game manager. This video (from another thread, but it fits pretty well here for my point) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVVGRReRfhY show's that with a flick of the wrist ponder can throw the ball 25 yards on target, no problem and he's throwing it to the same guys. (Aside from shiancoe) Only difference is the handcuffs are on now.

Thanks for a very interesting post. You may be right. I definitely think Ponder has a bit more gunslinger than game manager in his blood.

[mondry]

I think a lack of faith in their receivers was probably a factor for the Vikes too. They may have been trying to use quick-developing plays to help their o-line as well. To some extent, the choice to use a short, high percentage passing offense was probably about Ponder but I don't think he was the only factor and although I'm frustrated with Musgrave, I definitely don't believe he's incompetent.

You may be right but essentially it's the same receivers minus shiancoe but add wright, childs, carleson. For the O-line it's the same but add Matt Kalil, remove hutch. I guess for me I just don't see the connection there. Why not bring Hutch or Shank back if they're that important where we have to change our whole offense?

To me it just all co-incises with the frazier "run the ball, stop the run, play good defense, don't lose the turn over battle" mantra to install that kind of offense and run a game manager at QB. I will say that I don't see anything wrong with that, it most certainly would have beat the packers on sunday, but there was one little problem, Christian Ponder is not a game manager! hehe

So it's very interesting to me. They could try and get a guy like Alex Smith, who actually IS a game manager and behind a 1800+ season from AD, take this team to the playoffs most likely, or they HAVE to open the offense up and let Ponder be Ponder.

You're right about musgrave, i shouldn't have said what I said. He's toting the company line for Frazier very well, and like I said, if we had Alex Smith or Brad Johnson in his prime we could easily be 8-4.

[Mothman]

You may be right but essentially it's the same receivers minus shiancoe but add wright, childs, carleson. For the O-line it's the same but add Matt Kalil, remove hutch.

They also added Simpson, the o-line has different players at tackle and both guard positions and don't forget, Sauce is gone and he made a genuine difference in pass protection.

I guess for me I just don't see the connection there. Why not bring Hutch or Shank back if they're that important where we have to change our whole offense?

I don't think they changed the whole offense. They threw a lot of short, quick-hitting passes last year too but they've emphasized them more this year. What i was trying to say is I think there are explanations for that which include but go beyond lack of faith in Ponder. I think the latter is definitely a factor but I see other possible factors as well. They wanted to get the ball to Harvin more and they clearly feel he's better with it in his hands, running, than trying to get open downfield so they threw a lot of short stuff to him. Their line struggled in pass protection last year and has had some issues in that area this year too (although I think they've improved). One way to deal with that is to get the ball out of the QB's hands quicker. I also suspect they realized the downfield game wasn't going to be a strength (for a variety of reasons) unless Simpson could help it and they didn't want to use too many low percentage plays. They over-compensated and have been too conservative with the passing game at times and concern over turnovers was almost certainly a consideration. I'm just saying the reliance on the short passing game is probably due to a variety of factors.

To me it just all co-incises with the frazier "run the ball, stop the run, play good defense, don't lose the turn over battle" mantra to install that kind of offense and run a game manager at QB. I will say that I don't see anything wrong with that, it most certainly would have beat the packers on sunday, but there was one little problem, Christian Ponder is not a game manager! hehe

It's definitely an effort to minimize turnovers and maximize strengths and at times this season, it's worked pretty well for them. However, I'm not sure it really plays to Ponder's strengths.

So it's very interesting to me. They could try and get a guy like Alex Smith, who actually IS a game manager and behind a 1800+ season from AD, take this team to the playoffs most likely, or they HAVE to open the offense up and let Ponder be Ponder.

I think so too but do that successfully (ie: well enough to be a playoff team), I believe they need better talent on the outside... and of course, Ponder will have to step up for it to work.

You're right about musgrave, i shouldn't have said what I said. He's toting the company line for Frazier very well, and like I said, if we had Alex Smith or Brad Johnson in his prime we could easily be 8-4.

Yeah, I get aggravated with some Musgrave's choices but he's working with an offensive roster that he has to "handle" so I can cut him a little slack.

[mansquatch]

I think they are over coaching him on the importance of not making errors. Read Seifert's recent criticism, he talks about how Ponder hesitates on throws and tries to aim them. That to me is a guy who is being asked to over calculate every throw. Given that Ponder scored so high on the Wonderlic, it wouldn't suprrise me that he over analyzes all the throws anyways.

I do not know if Ponder can become a Cutler or a Favre, but I am fairly certain if you put that type of a QB in an environment where they are told to over think every throw and worry about risks all the time, they would fail. I agree with Mondry, a guy that is successful on instincts is not going to do well when you tell him to over think every play.

Also, and this is the big beef with Ponder, we are getting the errors but none of the positive plays. That is the thing I just can't wrap my brain around. You watch the link Mondry posted and it is quite clear that Ponder can make the big throws, he did it last season, so again I ask the same perplexing question: Where did that guy go?

I don't think it is the WR, who do suck, or the OL, which has had isuses. The OL is markedly better from last year. The WR are still a work in progress, but Harvin has stepped up and Rudy is better as well. Regardless, IMO neither of these are compelling reasons individually or together as to why Ponder's ability to make throws has suddenly vanished.

Here is a theory: Frasier's NFL career as a player was defined by the 1985 bears, a team that was in a similar position to the Vikings at least in terms of Offense. (We do NOT have the Monsters of the Midway.) First ballot HOF RB, major issues at QB. Singletary is still on the coaching staff as well. I wonder if Ponder is being managed in some part based on that prior experience?

Ponder is obviously playing with fear. Last year it was speculated that this was due to the beating he took behind our revolving door OL. This year it is being associated with his own skittishness. Maybe neither is correct and he is being coached to fear? I don't know, but there are just too many questions we can't answer.

[smoothoperator]

id prefer him not to turn into a cutler, who is a 7th year veteran and has worse numbers than ponder and he throws 80% of his completions to marshall. sure, he has a great arm, but he is incredibly inconsistent and a terrible leader. as for him becoming a favre, im all for that. another interesting stat i came across, stafford has twice as many throws as ponder, only 2 more tds and 1 point higher rating. granted, ponder has been awful lately, they need to figure out how to get back the swagger he had in the first part of the season.

[mansquatch]

I'd prefer the swagger he had when he came in to replace McNabb in 2011. Regardless, they've ripped it out of him in an effort ot get rid of INT. This has failed. We are still getting the INT, but we are not getting any big plays. They need to find a better balance or move on. At this point I do not see how Webb could be worse and that isn't a compliment to Webb.

[Mothman]

I think they are over coaching him on the importance of not making errors. Read Seifert's recent criticism, he talks about how Ponder hesitates on throws and tries to aim them. That to me is a guy who is being asked to over calculate every throw. Given that Ponder scored so high on the Wonderlic, it wouldn't suprrise me that he over analyzes all the throws anyways.

If I'm not mistaken, Craig Johnson has said something along those lines. Ponder might be getting over-coached or might just be over-thinking things because he knows he's making mistakes and he knows he needs to play smarter/better. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if he's putting far more pressure on himself than the coaches are exerting.

Also, and this is the big beef with Ponder, we are getting the errors but none of the positive plays. That is the thing I just can't wrap my brain around. You watch the link Mondry posted and it is quite clear that Ponder can make the big throws, he did it last season, so again I ask the same perplexing question: Where did that guy go?

I don't know. He still makes some nice plays, they're just far too rare. I thought the TD he threw to Rudolph on Sunday was an excellent throw, zinged right into close coverage where only Rudolph could catch it. It wasn't a long throw but it was a good one.

Here is a theory: Frasier's NFL career as a player was defined by the 1985 bears, a team that was in a similar position to the Vikings at least in terms of Offense. (We do NOT have the Monsters of the Midway.) First ballot HOF RB, major issues at QB.

Singletary is still on the coaching staff as well. I wonder if Ponder is being managed in some part based on that prior experience?

In what way? I wouldn't say the '85 Bears had major issues at QB, at least not when McMahon was healthy. He was a confident, fearless player, nothing like what we've seen from Ponder this season.

It seems like a stretch to me to attribute Ponder's lack of confidence/fear/whatever you want to call it to the coaching staff. A player is responsible for his own mental state.

[nmbr1joewebbfan]

I have a concussion so I can't type much but if you have a twitter please help me trend #StartWebbBenchPonder
With Ponder in the game, there's absolutely no way we'll go 4-0 or 3-1 against the remaining schedule so it'd be best if we threw something new at defenses in Joe Webb.

[mondry]

I'd prefer the swagger he had when he came in to replace McNabb in 2011. Regardless, they've ripped it out of him in an effort ot get rid of INT. This has failed. We are still getting the INT, but we are not getting any big plays. They need to find a better balance or move on. At this point I do not see how Webb could be worse and that isn't a compliment to Webb.

That's exactly my point, back when Ponder first came in last year he was confident, and just went out there and moved the ball and moved it well. Of course the downside was that he seemed to throw a pick every third drive but at least you saw the good.

It's something i've thought about and I think you hit it damn near on the head in your other post, that as a SMART QB, turning his instincts off, he's thinking about the throws too much and thinking about mistakes.

I will be VERY curious to see what happens when we're fully elminated from the playoffs and if they decide to open it up a little bit if he doesn't look much better all of a sudden. If he can go back into "not care" mode and just play football.

[Cliff]

I agree with the premise of this post to a degree ... but plays like the INT in the end zone in this last game make me question that line of thinking. Throwing across your body down there in that situation? The "game manager" thing to do is throw it away in that situation so I feel like the restraints can't be on *that* tight.

I feel like this is a young guy making dumb mistakes.

The problem is that you really want to see signs of him cleaning those mistakes up. Now, some people might be thinking "well he had these issues cleaned up earlier this season, now he has taken a step back!"

I disagree with that. I think Ponder caught a few lucky breaks earlier this year. I recall on more than one occasion when a ball hit a defender in the hands or chest and it was dropped. Ponders TD/INT ration actually should look worse than it does now (and it ain't great now).

If Ponder can't turn it back around in these next four games I think the Vikings need to take a QB with one of their first 3 draft picks, even another 1st rounder if the right player falls. This team needs more options that don't consist of stop gaps and low rounder flyers if Ponder leaves too many questions at the end of this season.

[mansquatch]

Mpth, Frasier gave a recent interview where he mentioned his time as a player. He was talking about how they worried about squandering #34, they being the players.


Cliff, that throw was a classic Ponder error, one of his criticisms coming out of college was that to a fault he tried to find a play on every down. This is the dilemna IMO, we are getting the bad throws still. So if they loosen the leash do we get more good? Do we also get more bad? The current status quo isn't working so something has to give.

[DanAS]

I marvel at any die-hard Vikings fan who can dispassionately analyze Ponder after the last several games, culminating in what he did against the Packers and to AD's 210 yard game.

At this point, I just don't want to see that dude in purple. I'm happy to analyze him if some other team wants him and he's wearing a different uni.

It's nothing personal. It's just business. But in the immortal words of Buddy Ryan, we need to trade him for a six pack. It doesn't have to be a cold one.

[mosscarter]

cutler is worse than ponder? ponder has no arm, no confidence, and next to no leadership ability. that packer game, along with the other two (i think one was against the cards) in which he threw for 55 and 65 yards in consecutive weeks? what a joke, the only worse starting qb in the nfl is sanchez.