Pondering Ponder vs. Ponder

[dead_poet]

By numbers alone, I'm seeing some progress. Which is a very good thing. He's obviously not tearing it up (especially not in the couple of games before Detroit). But the numbers are what they are.

His pocket presence and ability to step up rather than taking off running right/back in the last game was incredibly refreshing. Part of that may be due to better blocking by the guards to allow him to slip through, but some of that's on him too. One of the best games I've seen him play and certainly a confidence-booster going into the bye. Anyway, here are the stats, from the Star Tribune. Dissect them as you will.

2,027 passing yards for Ponder in his 10 starts this season. He has a completion percentage of 65.2 and has thrown 12 touchdown passes compared with eight interceptions while taking 24 sacks.

Last season? In 10 starts as a rookie, Ponder threw for 1,754 yards with a .544 completion percentage, 13 TDs, 13 picks and 30 sacks.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 01121.html

[Cliff]

I was just looking at these numbers yesterday.

One thing is clear; Ponder is making progress. Hopefully he keeps it up and keeps getting better.

[Mothman]

By numbers alone, I'm seeing some progress. Which is a very good thing. He's obviously not tearing it up (especially not in the couple of games before Detroit). But the numbers are what they are.

His pocket presence and ability to step up rather than taking off running right/back in the last game was incredibly refreshing. Part of that may be due to better blocking by the guards to allow him to slip through, but some of that's on him too.

It certainly helps to have a pocket to step into but as you said, some of it is about his willingness to "stay home" too. I think he was also aided by some playcalling changes. As Tom Pelissero mentioned in his weekly tape review, Musgrave appeared to call more crossing patterns and slants to help receivers uncover quickly. That emant Ponder had somewhere to go with the ball when the pressure was bearing down on him, which hasn't always been the case the last few weeks.

Thanks for the link and the stats. I think Ponder is clearly an improved QB this year and clearly a QB with a lot more improving to do. How he and the rest of the team perform against a difficult schedule (and in 4 road games) should tell us a lot about where they are and what they still need to do to take the next step forward in their development. If they can win one of these two upcoming road games against Chicago and Green Bay, that would be huge for them.

[losperros]

Thanks for the link and the stats. I think Ponder is clearly an improved QB this year and clearly a QB with a lot more improving to do. How he and the rest of the team perform against a difficult schedule (and in 4 road games) should tell us a lot about where they are and what they still need to do to take the next step forward in their development. If they can win one of these two upcoming road games against Chicago and Green Bay, that would be huge for them.

I agree. What will make it difficult is if Ponder plays just okay but not good or bad, let alone great or lousy. If Ponder can accelerate his progress and lead the offense to TDs and hopefully wins, that probably secures his position as the team's QB. Obviously, if Ponder sucks, that will probably mean the Vikings will look elsewhere for a QB for next year. But if he plays only so-so, then what?

Thanks to DP for the link!

[Mothman]

I agree. What will make it difficult is if Ponder plays just okay but not good or bad, let alone great or lousy. If Ponder can accelerate his progress and lead the offense to TDs and hopefully wins, that probably secures his position as the team's QB. Obviously, if Ponder sucks, that will probably mean the Vikings will look elsewhere for a QB for next year. But if he plays only so-so, then what?

Then I think they will have to take a close look at the reasons for his performance and make a difficult determination. I'm betting the key things the Vikes will look at are Ponder's fundamentals and decision-making so if he puts up so-so stats in games but makes smart choices, plays fundamentally sound and avoids committing too many turnovers, they'll probably feel comfortable continuing to develop him as their starter. He will be facing some very good defenses in the coming weeks so I doubt they will expect him to put up big numbers but minimizing mistakes will be particularly important in these upcoming road games and against opportunistic defenses.

I honestly think they need to add a QB next year regardless of how Ponder performs. They need to find a prospect with legitimate NFL potential that they can begin developing behind him, unless they truly feel Joe Webb is that guy and has a potential future as a starting QB in the NFL. I believe one of the backup QBs should always be a player with that kind of "future starter" potential.

[smoothoperator]

there wont be many qb's for us to find, a lot of other teams need a qb worse than we do. ponder will likely be our guy for a while.

[mansquatch]

Then I think they will have to take a close look at the reasons for his performance and make a difficult determination. I'm betting the key things the Vikes will look at are Ponder's fundamentals and decision-making so if he puts up so-so stats in games but makes smart choices, plays fundamentally sound and avoids committing too many turnovers, they'll probably feel comfortable continuing to develop him as their starter. He will be facing some very good defenses in the coming weeks so I doubt they will expect him to put up big numbers but minimizing mistakes will be particularly important in these upcoming road games and against opportunistic defenses.

I honestly think they need to add a QB next year regardless of how Ponder performs. They need to find a prospect with legitimate NFL potential that they can begin developing behind him, unless they truly feel Joe Webb is that guy and has a potential future as a starting QB in the NFL. I believe one of the backup QBs should always be a player with that kind of "future starter" potential.

Jim I do not see this happening. Look at how much the Bears paid Jason Cambell to sit on the bench. Any guy with legit potential is going to get drafted and drafted fairly high. If he is already in the league, he will command dollars and then the team has to ask, if they want to pay that in lieu of another area of need. Also, we have our back up in Joe Webb. We also have our project in MBT. Unless a BPA situation arises, I do not see them drafting a QB in the first 4 rounds.

[Mothman]

Jim I do not see this happening. Look at how much the Bears paid Jason Cambell to sit on the bench. Any guy with legit potential is going to get drafted and drafted fairly high.

I'm not necessarily talking about "step in and start as a rookie" potential, just legit potential. In other words, a player with the tools to succeed who needs some grooming. Brad Johnson and Matt Hasselbeck are great example of the kind of QB I'm talking about. I'm not saying it's easy to find one of those guys and actually have the pick turn into a quality starter but draft someone with the tools who needs some development and work with them. QBs with legit starting potential can still be found in R3 and beyond.

Also, we have our back up in Joe Webb. We also have our project in MBT. Unless a BPA situation arises, I do not see them drafting a QB in the first 4 rounds.

They probably won't (I agree with you that it's unlikely) but I think they should be willing to draft one as high as R3, even R2 if a great prospect drops (as Brees once did).

As I said above, if they truly think Webb has a potential future as a starting QB in the NFL then fine, they have the kind of player I'm talking about. I doubt MBT has that potential.

The main thing is to have a real backup plan. Ponder's clearly not a "can't miss" prospect. If they really believed Joe Webb could be their guy I doubt they would have spent the #12 pick on Ponder in the first place. They can't afford to get caught with their pants down again like they were after 2010. The Seahawks nabbed wilson in R3 last season. if the Vikes have a similar opportunity, they should take it. Start working on Plan B so that it's not a crisis if Plan A doesn't work out.

[losperros]

Then I think they will have to take a close look at the reasons for his performance and make a difficult determination. I'm betting the key things the Vikes will look at are Ponder's fundamentals and decision-making so if he puts up so-so stats in games but makes smart choices, plays fundamentally sound and avoids committing too many turnovers, they'll probably feel comfortable continuing to develop him as their starter. He will be facing some very good defenses in the coming weeks so I doubt they will expect him to put up big numbers but minimizing mistakes will be particularly important in these upcoming road games and against opportunistic defenses.

Good point. Frazier and his staff know physically Ponder can make the throws. If he continues to cut down on mistakes and his learning curve grows, then they'll see clear progress in Ponder and look to him as their QB next year. I think that's a valid move on the coaches part.

Part of the reason why I'm actually looking forward to the upcoming tough games is because I want to see how the Vikings (both the team and coaching staff) respond to it. Again, I see this as a rebuilding year. While last year's team would have gone headfirst into disaster with the upcoming schedule, I'm thinking there this year's team is better and can beat some of the teams their about to face.

[dead_poet]

Frazier and his staff know physically Ponder can make the throws. If he continues to cut down on mistakes and his learning curve grows, then they'll see clear progress in Ponder and look to him as their QB next year. I think that's a valid move on the coaches part.

I think it's absolutely vital the Vikings address their needs for a playmaking outside receiver to stretch the field (as of now, I don't see much benefit in Simpson, Jenkins OR Aromashadu returning given their "talents." At least, not in a starting capacity). Provided they acquire one via free agency or the draft, this could have major ramifications, should the coaching staff deem Ponder able to take his game to another level with the acquisition. Just as great QBs make average WRs look good, this is obviously true in reverse. It's a symbiotic relationship. I mean, it's not a fluke why Freeman is putting up career numbers with Vincent Jackson in town. If they go the draft route, they cannot afford to pull another Williamson. They need to hit, preferably the jackpot.

[mansquatch]

I agree on the need, but at their current pace they are not going to be picking in the top 10 of draft. 7-9 is the absoute worse they will do. If they draft a WR in the first round (likely IMO) then they are probably looking at a 1-2 season time frame for that guy to develop.

The other avenue is Free Agency, which can be a faster turn around. However, IMO, to get the guy they want/need they will need to pay big $$$. Not sure they will do that, but I think in the case of this particular need, it might be warranted.

It will be interesting to see how the priorities shift after this season, especially if they get into the post season.

[jackal]

I am really sick of people ripping ponder, the guy has talent people.

We won three games last year, and our system of offense is built on the running and TE routes

We don't have a ton of talent at wide out, except for Percy Harvin

We will win almost three times as many games as last year and you people want him gone !!!

I hope no one ever judges you haters, like you judge Ponder..

[smoothoperator]

this is a very weak draft for wrs and there arent going to be too many solid FA Wr's available either. the vikings wanted garcon this offseason and couldnt get him because washington overpaid for him. we have to go for a guy like bowe, a big, physical receiver.

[PurpleMustReign]

But he sucks.

[dead_poet]

this is a very weak draft for wrs

I don't know about that. There are some guys (providing they declare) that are extremely talented. Guys like Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter, DeAndre Hopkins, Terrance Williams and Robert Woods are putting up great numbers and I've seen all projected in various mocks as first-round picks. There might not be a Calvin Johnson that'll go in the top-5, but I think that works to our benefit if the Vikings are targeting a WR with their first selection. They'll should be able to get one of the top three. If they hit, it could pay big dividends.