Breaking down the tape: Vikes-Seahawks

[dead_poet]

Blame for the abysmal passing game doesn't fall exclusively on Christian Ponder (54 snaps), whose issues are being exacerbated by trouble elsewhere. One way or another, though, he has to be more productive than this. Ponder finished 11-of-22 passing for just 63 yards (2.9 per attempt). He didn't have a completion longer than 14 yards. He double-clutched and seemed to be waiting for receivers to come open, rather than anticipating his throws. He threw off-target eight times, although several were affected by pressure that kept caving the pocket. That also might explain why Ponder seemed overly eager on some occasions to take off running. Rhythm, timing and tempo is just lacking all around. Seattle followed the template, stressing the protection unit with wrapped blitzes and rushing five or more eight times in Ponder's 25 dropbacks (32%, not including five designed bootlegs, sprintouts, etc.). Three of four sacks came in 2.4 seconds or less -- tough ones to avoid with no one flashing in pattern before contact. Ponder was pressured a dozen times in all, took three other hits and came up limping at least twice. Admit it or not, the knee might be giving him trouble. The late interception wasn't a great throw, but the receiver didn't make a play on it either. The missed bubble screen wasn't going to be blocked up anyway. Another quick-release fade sailed out of bounds. Five scrambles netted 23 yards (4.6 average). Sometimes, Ponder just needs to pull the trigger. But at this point, so much is going wrong there's not much reason to believe taking a chance will produce a positive result.

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Brea ... awks110512

[Mothman]

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Brea ... awks110512

He certainly nailed that one.

Jim

[VikingLord]

As the King goes, so goes the Kingdom.

You put an incompetent in charge of any organization, be that a team or a company, and what could have been a very efficient, competent entity full of competent people will tank. What formerly appeared capable will become incapable. What formerly was a force will be diffuse and ineffective.

Ponder touches the ball on every offensive snap. His decisions, good or bad, affect everyone around him on every play. If the QB isn't reading things right or making good decisions, by definition everyone else around him is going to look bad, get frustrated, and eventually, the whole thing implodes.

The Vikings don't have a great offensive line, but Ponder taking off quickly and repeatedly isn't helping them. They don't have great WR's, but Ponder's failures to see the field and deliver the ball accurately and on time isn't helping them. Musgrave has his issues, but Ponder's inability to execute even simple screen passes isn't helping Musgrave.

The bottom line is everything goes through the QB and if the QB is incompetent, of course everyone else is going to look bad. What amazes me is how many seem eager to lump those other components in with Ponder as if they are equally to blame for the pathetic offensive performances of late (outside of Beast Mode). IMHO, they are not at all equal, because Ponder is the lynchpin for the whole thing. If Ponder doesn't improve, everyone else is going to continue to look bad and overmatched by comparison.

And now, for our viewing pleasure, we're going to get a visual demonstration of exactly why I didn't like the selection of Frazier as head coach. Frazier is going to stick with Ponder to the end. Frazier's team isn't out of it yet. They're down, but they can still pull it together. But Frazier isn't going to go for that. He's going to stick with Ponder to the bitter end. If you like train wrecks, this has the making of a good one.

[Mothman]

As the King goes, so goes the Kingdom.

You put an incompetent in charge of any organization, be that a team or a company, and what could have been a very efficient, competent entity full of competent people will tank. What formerly appeared capable will become incapable. What formerly was a force will be diffuse and ineffective.

Ponder touches the ball on every offensive snap. His decisions, good or bad, affect everyone around him on every play. If the QB isn't reading things right or making good decisions, by definition everyone else around him is going to look bad, get frustrated, and eventually, the whole thing implodes.

The Vikings don't have a great offensive line, but Ponder taking off quickly and repeatedly isn't helping them.

Constantly facing pressure doesn't help him either.

The bottom line is everything goes through the QB and if the QB is incompetent, of course everyone else is going to look bad. What amazes me is how many seem eager to lump those other components in with Ponder as if they are equally to blame for the pathetic offensive performances of late (outside of Beast Mode). IMHO, they are not at all equal, because Ponder is the lynchpin for the whole thing. If Ponder doesn't improve, everyone else is going to continue to look bad and overmatched by comparison.

I'm not sure anybody is saying those other parts are equally to blame but they definitely share in the blame. Each part influences the other and it's a two way street. You can't talk about Ponder's incompetence making others look bad and pretend like the failures of others don't impact his performance. On plays where he can't even set before there's pressure in his face, somebody else is screwing up. On plays where he escapes that pressure and has nowhere to go with the ball, his teammates are letting him down just as much as he lets them down when he throws a bad pass.

If there's an eagerness at work here, it seems to me like it's an eagerness to blame Ponder and give the rest of the offense a pass, or at least diminish their contribution to the abomination the Vikes passing game has become lately. I don't get it. In every Vikings broadcast, we hear announcers talking about missed blocks and receivers struggling to get open. Beat reporters and analysts all agree that the issues with passing offense extend well beyond Ponder and it's not hard to see on the field. Why is there so much resistance to that idea?

[S197]

If there's an eagerness at work here, it seems to me like it's an eagerness to blame Ponder and give the rest of the offense a pass, or at least diminish their contribution to the abomination the Vikes passing game has become lately. I don't get it. In every Vikings broadcast, we hear announcers talking about missed blocks and receivers struggling to get open. Beat reporters and analysts all agree that the issues with passing offense extend well beyond Ponder and it's not hard to see on the field. Why is there so much resistance to that idea?

I think in certain situations those issues are warranted, such as the overload blitz where Loadholt basically missed both blitzers. In those situations, it doesn't really matter who is behind center, they're going down.

However, as I mentioned in another thread, I don't thing it's a common enough occurrence. Lets step away from Ponder for a second and look at the other QB on the field that day. Wilson was under heavy pressure as well but he was significantly more poised. At one point he used a brilliant pump fake (which I've been saying Ponder needs to develop) that got Greenway up in the air allowing him to escape. On the TD pass to Tate, he lead his receiver and delivered a perfect pass to a guy who had maybe a step and a half in front of Jefferson who was defending.

In those two scenarios, had Ponder been the QB, he probably eats a sack but the line is likely blamed for not making the block. On the TD play he probably doesn't make the throw and the receiver is blamed for not getting enough separation.
Not to sound like a broken record but this is the NFL, you don't get clean pockets and receivers don't always get 5-yards of separation, at some point you need to make the play.

AD had the best 1st half of rushing in his entire career. Harvin speaks for himself and Rudolph is solid. There's QB's out there who would kill for talent like that. Washington beat us with Alfred Morris, Santana Moss, and Hankerson. Is anyone really going to argue they have more talent than the Vikings? Yes, execution is a problem. Yes, this is a rebuilding team that doesn't have top tier talent everywhere. However, there's enough there that sub-70 yard passing performances, two in three weeks, should not be acceptable or apologized.

[Demi]

It doesn't help when the announcers also point out pretty basic things he's missing. From "That was very bad awareness from Ponder" on a sack, after stepping up from phantom pressure. To two plays where Simpson was open and Ponder didn't appear to have the confidence to make the throw (more open then a couple throws Wilson made to Rice). As well as the missed screen to Harvin that set Harvin off. 3 throws to the flats in the last two games that NO quarterback should miss.

Yes other parts are struggling. But no where near as often as Ponder. And when they aren't struggling, Ponder still isn't making plays. He threw over half a dozen horribly inaccurate passes to open receivers last game. Where he had no pressure and the receiver, while not wide open, wasn't blanked either. You can't put those on anyone but Ponder. And while Loadholt might blow it now and then, Ponder is doing it consistently. Regardless of how the rest of the team is performing.

[Mothman]

In those two scenarios, had Ponder been the QB, he probably eats a sack but the line is likely blamed for not making the block. On the TD play he probably doesn't make the throw and the receiver is blamed for not getting enough separation.
Not to sound like a broken record but this is the NFL, you don't get clean pockets and receivers don't always get 5-yards of separation, at some point you need to make the play.

I think it depends on the specific play and the specific situation. Yes, at some point the QB needs to make the play but that point is when the play is actually there to be made. There are situations where Ponder flees the pocket too quickly but there's the kind of pressure that allows a QB to step up in the pocket to make a throw and there's the kind of pressure that simply doesn't make that possible. Ponder has seen a lot of the latter in the past 3 games and it shouldn't be minimized. QBs aren't magicians and every one of them can be forced into mistakes and poor performances with pressure. That's why big time pass rushers get the big bucks. Ponder can't expect clean pockets and wide open receivers but he should be able to expect time to set his feet and make a throw, he should be able to expect a pocket to step into and receivers to get open and make plays on the ball. As I said, it's a two way street. Receivers should expect catchable passes. The OL should expect Ponder to get rid of the ball in a reasonable amount of time. All too often, there's someone who doesn't hold up their end of the bargain and while that's often Ponder, it's often someone else too.

I'm not trying to deflect blame from Ponder, who deserves plenty of it. I just don't understand the resistance to accept that the passing problems are due to a combination of serious issues that extend beyond the QB . It's right there for everyone to see. There's a clear desire to put the lion's share of the blame at the QB's feet and I wonder if that's just because people want to believe that simply changing QBs will solve all of the offense's problems. It could certainly make a big difference but everybody needs to step up.

AD had the best 1st half of rushing in his entire career. Harvin speaks for himself and Rudolph is solid.

I'm beginning to wonder about that last one. Just how solid is Rudolph? It seems awfully easy for defenses to take him out of games.

There's QB's out there who would kill for talent like that. Washington beat us with Alfred Morris, Santana Moss, and Hankerson.

... and RGIII. Let's not gloss over the fact Morris was near the top of the NFL in rushing at the time and he's still in the top 6.

Is anyone really going to argue they have more talent than the Vikings? Yes, execution is a problem. Yes, this is a rebuilding team that doesn't have top tier talent everywhere. However, there's enough there that sub-70 yard passing performances, two in three weeks, should not be acceptable or apologized.[/quote

I agree but I don't see anybody doing accepting or apologizing for it.

[J. Kapp 11]

It doesn't help when the announcers also point out pretty basic things he's missing. From "That was very bad awareness from Ponder" on a sack, after stepping up from phantom pressure. To two plays where Simpson was open and Ponder didn't appear to have the confidence to make the throw (more open then a couple throws Wilson made to Rice). As well as the missed screen to Harvin that set Harvin off. 3 throws to the flats in the last two games that NO quarterback should miss.

Yes other parts are struggling. But no where near as often as Ponder. And when they aren't struggling, Ponder still isn't making plays. He threw over half a dozen horribly inaccurate passes to open receivers last game. Where he had no pressure and the receiver, while not wide open, wasn't blanked either. You can't put those on anyone but Ponder. And while Loadholt might blow it now and then, Ponder is doing it consistently. Regardless of how the rest of the team is performing.

Definitely agree with you here, man.

Your "phantom pressure" comment is right on the money. He was feeling pressure even when there was none. He missed a wide-open Percy Harvin, and we ended up drawing a PI penalty instead of scoring a TD. Ponder was terrible Sunday, and there is no other way to put it. No excuses.

[Mothman]

Definitely agree with you here, man.

Your "phantom pressure" comment is right on the money. He was feeling pressure even when there was none. He missed a wide-open Percy Harvin, and we ended up drawing a PI penalty instead of scoring a TD. Ponder was terrible Sunday, and there is no other way to put it. No excuses.

I agree and I'm not making excuses for him. I just don't want to see these other underachievers let off the hook because people are too intent to lay everything at Ponder's feet. We've seen pass rushers come in unblocked, blow up plays and/or kill drives multiple times per game over the last 3 weeks. That's just completely unacceptable.

I thought Sunday's game was easily Ponder's worst of the season. Against Arizona, while he had similarly bad numbers, the pressure played a bigger role in his performance. In this game, he threw way too many inaccurate passes and was far too skittish in the pocket.

The whole damn situation make me sick.

[J. Kapp 11]

I agree and I'm not making excuses for him. I just don't want to see these other underachievers let off the hook because people are too intent to lay everything at Ponder's feet. We've seen pass rushers come in unblocked, blow up plays and/or kill drives multiple times per game over the last 3 weeks. That's just completely unacceptable.

I thought Sunday's game was easily Ponder's worst of the season. Against Arizona, while he had similarly bad numbers, the pressure played a bigger role in his performance. In this game, he threw way too many inaccurate passes and was far too skittish in the pocket.

The whole damn situation make me sick.

Jim, the pressure is because the gameplan against Ponder and the Vikings is to blitz virtually every down. Whether it's Musgrave, Ponder, the receivers, or whomever, the Vikings are not adjusting. This isn't because our linemen are routinely getting beat one-on-one. The blueprint has been drawn. Blitz. The Vikings have no answer. Yes, it's a team problem. But ...

... even when he wasn't under heavy pressure, Ponder looked totally indecisive. He just won't take a chance throwing the ball. It's like he needs receivers to be wide open before he will even think about throwing it. He's playing with zero confidence. Is it his fault? At this point, I'm not sure it matters.

[Mothman]

Jim, the pressure is because the gameplan against Ponder and the Vikings is to blitz virtually every down. Whether it's Musgrave, Ponder, the receivers, or whomever, the Vikings are not adjusting. This isn't because our linemen are routinely getting beat one-on-one. The blueprint has been drawn. Blitz. The Vikings have no answer. Yes, it's a team problem. But ...

Failure to adjust to the blitz has definitely been a big problem. However, blockers are being beat one on one on plays where there is no blitz too. That happened quite a bit against Arizona and it's happened in the last two weeks as well. Whether it's against the blitz or not, those rushers need to be blocked. As you said regarding Ponder's play: no excuses. It was widely reported that the Vikes worked specifically on that issue prior to the Seattle game so the fact that they were so vulnerable to the blitz after paying extra attention to picking it up is particularly damning.

... even when he wasn't under heavy pressure, Ponder looked totally indecisive.

He definitely looked that way in the second half. I thought he looked sharp and decisive on the second scoring drive but other than that, he was wildly inconsistent.

He just won't take a chance throwing the ball.

I don't think that's true. He's taken quite a few chances. I definitely see a growing reluctance from him but he was willing to throw a few deep shots to Harvin against Seattle. He made a beautiful throw to Simpson in tight coverage in the second quarter and he certainly wasn't afraid to take chances throwing the ball to Simpson against Tampa Bay. Like everything about his game lately, it's an area where he's uneven. There are plays where he looks decisive and very willing to take chances and plays where he looks extremely reluctant to pull the trigger. Some of that is on him and some of it is because he's not looking at open receivers. I know people think he has to throw them open or just fire it into a tight window but there's a fine line between recklessly forcing the ball into coverage and taking chances worth taking. Sometimes the throw is there for him if he'd just take it and sometimes he'd be a fool to throw it.

[S197]

I think it depends on the specific play and the specific situation. Yes, at some point the QB needs to make the play but that point is when the play is actually there to be made. There are situations where Ponder flees the pocket too quickly but there's the kind of pressure that allows a QB to step up in the pocket to make a throw and there's the kind of pressure that simply doesn't make that possible. Ponder has seen a lot of the latter in the past 3 games and it shouldn't be minimized. QBs aren't magicians and every one of them can be forced into mistakes and poor performances with pressure. That's why big time pass rushers get the big bucks. Ponder can't expect clean pockets and wide open receivers but he should be able to expect time to set his feet and make a throw, he should be able to expect a pocket to step into and receivers to get open and make plays on the ball. As I said, it's a two way street. Receivers should expect catchable passes. The OL should expect Ponder to get rid of the ball in a reasonable amount of time. All too often, there's someone who doesn't hold up their end of the bargain and while that's often Ponder, it's often someone else too.

I'm not trying to deflect blame from Ponder, who deserves plenty of it. I just don't understand the resistance to accept that the passing problems are due to a combination of serious issues that extend beyond the QB . It's right there for everyone to see. There's a clear desire to put the lion's share of the blame at the QB's feet and I wonder if that's just because people want to believe that simply changing QBs will solve all of the offense's problems. It could certainly make a big difference but everybody needs to step up.

I'm not resistant to the argument that the offense faces a multitude of problems. In fact, I started my post by specifically mentioning a particular play where Loadholt blew his blitz assignment, which resulted in a sack. That was not on Ponder.

What I was trying to convey is that many times a QB needs to make a play when things break down. Ponder is great in practice and great when he has a clean pocket but that's just not the way the NFL works. This is why I provided the examples from Wilson, plays in which there was a breakdown or a tough throw to make but he made the play. It's these types of plays that separate the good from those that will be holding a clipboard for most of their career. I've mentioned in another thread that I don't think Webb is the ultimate answer so I don't believe a QB change will solve all of the offense's problems. I do, however, see a QB who deserves the bulk of the blame at this point in the season.

I'm beginning to wonder about that last one. Just how solid is Rudolph? It seems awfully easy for defenses to take him out of games.

He has disappeared substantially, which is concerning. However, he's not being helped all that much by his QB. He's not getting targeted all that much, and when he is, Ponder is throwing it into the turf too often (I believe 2nd series of the game since you have the coaches tape and maybe can confirm).

... and RGIII. Let's not gloss over the fact Morris was near the top of the NFL in rushing at the time and he's still in the top 6.

Right, but the argument is that Ponder lacks talent around him so adding RG3 into the equation doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Morris is fine but I don't think anyone would make the case he's on AD's level. The same can be said for Santana Moss, decent but he's no Harvin. That's the point I'm trying to make, our talent isn't great everywhere but I don't see a position outside of RG3/Ponder that I would swap with Washington. Recall both Simpson and Garcon were out that game.

[Mothman]

He has disappeared substantially, which is concerning. However, he's not being helped all that much by his QB. He's not getting targeted all that much, and when he is, Ponder is throwing it into the turf too often (I believe 2nd series of the game since you have the coaches tape and maybe can confirm).

Yes, he threw a low pass to Rudolph that was incomplete. It hit Rudolph in the hands so it was catchable but it would have been a difficult catch and there was no excuse for the low throw.

Regarding the number of targets Rudolph is getting: I wouldn't be throwing to him much either. He's not getting open very often and I don't mean wide open, I just mean open. He has to do a better job of getting off the line, creating enough separation to justify the throw, or at least getting great position on a defender. Lately, he's been too easy to cover.

[mondry]

Yes, he threw a low pass to Rudolph that was incomplete. It hit Rudolph in the hands so it was catchable but it would have been a difficult catch and there was no excuse for the low throw.

Regarding the number of targets Rudolph is getting: I wouldn't be throwing to him much either. He's not getting open very often and I don't mean wide open, I just mean open. He has to do a better job of getting off the line, creating enough separation to justify the throw, or at least getting great position on a defender. Lately, he's been too easy to cover.

He's not going to make to many shoe string catches with his size. We've also seen that him being "open" or not doesn't really mean much, just needs a high (head lvl / slightly lead throw) and he can come up with it. That's the exact kind of throw ponder has no confidence in attempting right now though so he needs to get that trust back he had earlier in the year. Like that 1 handed TD catch they hooked up on while rudolph was completely blanketed (the one Peterson appeared wide open on)

Hopefully Rudolph can work on his technique then, cause with his size i don't see him getting any faster or outrunning the smaller guys that are covering him. Ponder needs to be able to put the ball on him out of his breaks.

[admvp]

As the King goes, so goes the Kingdom.

You put an incompetent in charge of any organization, be that a team or a company, and what could have been a very efficient, competent entity full of competent people will tank. What formerly appeared capable will become incapable. What formerly was a force will be diffuse and ineffective.

Ponder touches the ball on every offensive snap. His decisions, good or bad, affect everyone around him on every play. If the QB isn't reading things right or making good decisions, by definition everyone else around him is going to look bad, get frustrated, and eventually, the whole thing implodes.

The Vikings don't have a great offensive line, but Ponder taking off quickly and repeatedly isn't helping them. They don't have great WR's, but Ponder's failures to see the field and deliver the ball accurately and on time isn't helping them. Musgrave has his issues, but Ponder's inability to execute even simple screen passes isn't helping Musgrave.

The bottom line is everything goes through the QB and if the QB is incompetent, of course everyone else is going to look bad. What amazes me is how many seem eager to lump those other components in with Ponder as if they are equally to blame for the pathetic offensive performances of late (outside of Beast Mode). IMHO, they are not at all equal, because Ponder is the lynchpin for the whole thing. If Ponder doesn't improve, everyone else is going to continue to look bad and overmatched by comparison.

And now, for our viewing pleasure, we're going to get a visual demonstration of exactly why I didn't like the selection of Frazier as head coach. Frazier is going to stick with Ponder to the end. Frazier's team isn't out of it yet. They're down, but they can still pull it together. But Frazier isn't going to go for that. He's going to stick with Ponder to the bitter end. If you like train wrecks, this has the making of a good one.

This sums up everything I've been thinking for the past month or so. Very very VERY well said, VikingLord.