Vikes/SeahawksPost-game Thoughts

[Raptorman]

I don't think it is a right or wrong thing. The mantra I've run with is be patient, only because I do not think you can build a competitive roster if you are constantly drafting 1st round QBs every year. That being said, I agree with the minimal performance line, Ponder is below it and it shows. The bubble screen is probably the best example. That is an ultra quick throw, it is in the backfield, and all he needs to do is put it in the right spot for Harvin to grab it and go. He couldn't do it. Just abyssmal. The happy feet issue is ever present and he is not seeing the throws.

Rather than watch Ponder I spent more time watching what the defense was doing. A question I've had over the past few weeks has been "what has changed?" and "why is Ponder suddenly struggling so much?" Some observations:

Seattle keyed on Rudolph. They were jamming him at the line, and then had him blanketed. They took away the safety valve and basically said "You are going to have to throw longer than that to beat us." Ponder couldn't do it. It wasn't that there were not plays either, for whatever reason he just isn't seeing the field and he is throwing with fear, not confidence. He is completely rattled right now. Even a whiff of pressure and he takes off. I think a big part of this is accuracy. It seems like he doesn't have confidence in his ability to fit the ball into tight places. What happened to the guy last year who might toss some picks, but then would turn into ice man and put up 150 yards in a quarter trying to bring his team back?

I think it all adds up to a serious confidence issue. There is just no flow to his game, he just seems mechanical, and opposing DC have this approach figured out and are taking away his comfort zone and making him do what he seems afraid of doing.

Regardless of whatever people think of Ponder, something is very wrong with this situation. I think it is more than just Ponder, but we'll never know. This guy is so scared to put the ball anywhere, I have to believe that the coaches know this and I also think to some degree they might be responsible for it. It feels like there is a piece of the puzzle that we are missing. How does a guy go from showing the flashes we saw last year to the guy we are seeing today?

Also, it seems like the Defense has just lost confidence in the offense. They were not playing with aggression or ferocity today. So many plays where they moved backwards off the line. It makes me wonder if there is a brewing schism in the locker room. After the Harvin outburst and the way the Defense just lacked bite it seems like this squad is heading towards a breaking point after such a promising start. The bye week cannot come soon enough.

The bye week cannot come soon enough for this team.

That is the same thing I am seeing. He needs to get over it and get over it fast.

[mansquatch]

My big question in this is why is Ponder so scared? That is what I do not understand. I can see playing hurt and that is hampering his ability. Fine. Maybe his GF has turned him into a headcase. OK. I can see him being rattled and the affecting his accuracy. That is probably happening. But what I do not understand is why he is so completely afraid of making mistakes. It is like everything goes out the window and he is just shell shocked every passing down. It is so bad you can smell the fear from your TV set. You have to imagine opposing linebackers are just salivating.

Also, I do not understand how you do not ride the AP bandwagon? You gash their D for 180+ yards and 2 TD and you do not just ride that horse until they stop it? I know our defense was struggling, but at what point do abandon conventional wisdom with your terrible passing game given the magnificence of your rushing attack? I get the whole “Pass to keep them honest” thing. Maybe we should run to make them think twice about giving us overload blitzes all the time?

It seems like the winning DC game plan on our O is overload Blitz one of the Guards or Loadholt, jam the crap out of Rudolph, and double cover Harvin. Do that and we pass for 50 yards.

As I’ve said previously over the past 2 weeks: This is a coaching moment. Ponder obviously needs to be better, but it is up to the coaches to get this team out of the tank and set them up to succeed. Right now it feels like the coaches are in the tank as well.

[Mothman]

My big question in this is why is Ponder so scared? That is what I do not understand. I can see playing hurt and that is hampering his ability. Fine. Maybe his GF has turned him into a headcase. OK. I can see him being rattled and the affecting his accuracy. That is probably happening. But what I do not understand is why he is so completely afraid of making mistakes. It is like everything goes out the window and he is just shell shocked every passing down. It is so bad you can smell the fear from your TV set. You have to imagine opposing linebackers are just salivating.

Only Ponder can answer that but I think it's probably just the combination of everything: he's made mistakes and poor decisions over the past month and he doesn't want to hurt his team by making more. He probably lacks faith in his protection and perhaps in some of his receivers as well. It just looks to me as if he's desperately trying to avoid negative plays and consequently, isn't making many positive plays either.

Also, I do not understand how you do not ride the AP bandwagon? You gash their D for 180+ yards and 2 TD and you do not just ride that horse until they stop it?

I don't get it either.

I know our defense was struggling, but at what point do abandon conventional wisdom with your terrible passing game given the magnificence of your rushing attack? I get the whole “Pass to keep them honest” thing. Maybe we should run to make them think twice about giving us overload blitzes all the time?

Some of the blitzing is designed to stop the run as well as attack Ponder. Defenses are trying to clog running lanes and contain Peterson but I see your point anyway.

It seems like the winning DC game plan on our O is overload Blitz one of the Guards or Loadholt, jam the crap out of Rudolph, and double cover Harvin. Do that and we pass for 50 yards.

That's it, although I wouldn't leave Kalil and Sullivan out of that because they've struggled against those blitzes too. The Vikes have no answers.

As I’ve said previously over the past 2 weeks: This is a coaching moment. Ponder obviously needs to be better, but it is up to the coaches to get this team out of the tank and set them up to succeed. Right now it feels like the coaches are in the tank as well.

The whole team is struggling for answers, from top to bottom. As Pelissero said in his post-game video (link below) this Vikings team is good at one thing right now: running the football.

http://www.1500espn.com/videos/vikings_ ... ing_attack

[losperros]

The whole team is struggling for answers, from top to bottom. As Pelissero said in his post-game video (link below) this Vikings team is good at one thing right now: running the football.

http://www.1500espn.com/videos/vikings_ ... ing_attack

Excellent commentary by Pelissero. He's right about the passing game not just being bad but also incompetent. Some of the points about the players getting angry are valid too.

Also, I agree with him that neither unit, offense or defense, is helping the other unit right now.

[Mothman]

Excellent commentary by Pelissero. He's right about the passing game not just being bad but also incompetent. Some of the points about the players getting angry are valid too.

Also, I agree with him that neither unit, offense or defense, is helping the other unit right now.

It's frustrating for us so it must be far more frustrating for the coaches and players. I'm amazed that they can't feed a little more off the energy Peterson is giving them because he's been playing out of his mind lately.

[dead_poet]

Good stuff from Seifert's Free Head Exam:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... vikings-39

[losperros]

Good stuff from Seifert's Free Head Exam:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... vikings-39

Thanks for the link. During this troubled rebuilding season, Seifert, Pelissero, and the Vikings Access guys have been voices of reason.

[dead_poet]

Second-year QB passer ratings: Dalton (86.7), Ponder (82.0), Gabbert (78.4), Newton (77.7). Life's not easy when defenses get a book on you.

That's not to say all of those QBs will end up being successes or none of them will. But patience is a virtue at the position. The question at this stage isn't whether Ponder is a failure. If you think you know, you're a fool. Question is whether this is helping him.

Today was Ponder's 19th NFL start. Here's another QB's stat line in 19th start: 12-of-31, 152 yards, 2 INTs, 27.9 rating. Anyone know who? Eli Manning.

Not saying Ponder is Eli Manning. But that guy was booed for 3.5 years, now has 2 rings. Patience is a virtue. Instant success is rare.

I'm not even defending Ponder. He has been brutal of late. But it's part of the bigger picture. The book isn't written on his career here.

Tom Pelissero on Twitter

[Mothman]

Tom Pelissero on Twitter

He's right, of course, about every one of those points. However, I think the point Kevin Siefert made earlier today about accountability is equally important. The Vikes need to be patient and they need to figure out the best way to get Ponder out of this funk and back to playing at a reasonable level. If he has another sub-100 yard passing performance against the Lions next week, it will be hard for the coaches to continue justifying his presence in the starting lineup to the rest of the team.

[VikingLord]

He's right, of course, about every one of those points. However, I think the point Kevin Siefert made earlier today about accountability is equally important. The Vikes need to be patient and they need to figure out the best way to get Ponder out of this funk and back to playing at a reasonable level. If he has another sub-100 yard passing performance against the Lions next week, it will be hard for the coaches to continue justifying his presence in the starting lineup to the rest of the team.

It's getting increasingly difficult for anyone to defend Ponder and not look like a Pollyanna or a fool. Of course Pelisserio is right. Ponder could just be going through a rough patch and will emerge a superstar NFL QB, but I'd say the chances of that happening are pretty small. The reason I say that is because of the lack of positive plays. It's not just that defenses have Ponder on the ropes - it's that he has no counter at all. It would be nice to see something from him even if it's just 2 or 3 jabs that knock them back a bit, but there is nothing. His downfield attempts have regressed to hike it, set, and lob, and even those aren't good passes.

I don't know where the line gets drawn between giving Ponder more time and deciding to go in another direction. I just hope Frazier and Spielman do, because like it or not, he's their albatross. They picked him at #12, have invested the time into him and made him their starting QB, and if they blew it, and it increasingly looks like they did, it's their jobs that will be on the line. Likewise, though, if Frazier changes directions and can salvage something of a season where the Vikings are still in contention for something, while Ponder's career would go down in flames, Frazier might save his. It's a hard call, but it's one Frazier has to make and make soon.

One last item of interest is the impact this all has on Harvin's future with the team. NFL players don't get to play forever, and a guy like Harvin will command huge interest in FA. The question there is, if Harvin has lost faith in Frazier and the direction of the team, can the Vikings even keep him in purple going forward? I know technically they can, but practically will it work? And even if Frazier goes with Webb, what does that imply for the future at QB in Minnesota? Unless Webb is the future, and I think most doubt that he is, Vikes would likely be back in the market for a serviceable vet for next year and/or attempting to draft another QB high when they desperately need help at WR, LB, and NT and there would be many viable options at those positions where they are likely to draft.

[mondry]

When it comes down to it for me, it's simply a matter of Musgrave unwilling to budge on his bunch formations and play calling. Ponder has passed for 270, 245, 258, and 352 yards this year. Not including the last 3 games, that's 4 out of 6 games with "viable" passing stats and the one against the lions we had mega special teams success. Don't get me wrong it wasn't super awesome, but it wasn't horrible either.

So what happened, is it realistic to think our WR's got worse? The O-line got worse? That Ponder got worse? It just doesn't seem accurate to me, but what it does seem like is that what was working at first isn't working now, and the offensive coaches haven't been able to change or adapt to put the players in a position to succeed against what is happening to them.

If that's the case the next logical thing to ask is, okay what IS happening to them then? It's fair to say the O-line has given up more pressure than in the early part of the season, but it's not simply because they aren't executing as well as they did. It's 100% circumstantial in that if they have more pass rushers than we have blockers, the o-line is gonna have a bad time. With ZERO passes completed beyond 15 yards (in the air or otherwise) why WOULDN'T a defense just rush 7-8 guys every play? They literally do not have to COVER 75% of the field because we're unwilling to spread things out, throw 4-5 receiving targets out there and MAKE them stop blitzing. I mean, the whole idea of a blitz is that you're going to RISK weakening your defense of certain parts of the field to try and get added pressure. However, if there is near zero downside to weakening your down the field coverage, you would blitz every single time! You'd be an idiot not to!

If Peterson get's the ball tackle him, if he doesn't keep going to Ponder. That is the entirety of what defensive players have to think about if you aren't covering one of the TWO wr's on the outside or jamming rudolph at the line. If the o-line has a bad time, Ponder is gonna have a bad time, if Ponder has a bad time the WR's aren't going to be able to bail him out. It's like playing chess, both sides have roughly the same amount of pieces, but we have to announce our next 5 moves ahead of time. That's what this offense feels like right now.

They simply HAVE to at least TRY and spread it out and open up the field a bit. Throw simpson, Harvin, Jenkins, Rudolph, and Ellison out on 10-15 yard routes, let Peterson chip but also release as an option. Target saturation is so key in today's NFL, even the worst WR's in the league have to be covered. Sure teams may still not care and blitz us anyway but at least Ponder would have the chance to beat it by hitting that left open guy. I'm not ready to write him off and I suppose that makes me an idiot but I find it hard to believe anyone, even andrew luck would thrive in musgrave's system.

I understand why you would want to baby your QB and run a super simple offense based around short passing and running the football, trying to protect Ponder. However it's gotten to a point where this scheme / offense has been so easily defeated that he is actually well on his way to DESTROYING christian Ponder. It's already super obvious the kid is losing faith in his own ability and confidence, the players are losing faith, tempers are flaring and everyone is obviously frustrated. I thought Musgrave deserved to finish out the year and see if he had anything up his sleeve but I don't think the team can afford it anymore.

[Mothman]

I don't know where the line gets drawn between giving Ponder more time and deciding to go in another direction. I just hope Frazier and Spielman do, because like it or not, he's their albatross. They picked him at #12, have invested the time into him and made him their starting QB, and if they blew it, and it increasingly looks like they did, it's their jobs that will be on the line. Likewise, though, if Frazier changes directions and can salvage something of a season where the Vikings are still in contention for something, while Ponder's career would go down in flames, Frazier might save his. It's a hard call, but it's one Frazier has to make and make soon.

I doubt Frazier's job hinges on Ponder's success or failure this season.

[Cliff]

So what happened, is it realistic to think our WR's got worse? The O-line got worse? That Ponder got worse? It just doesn't seem accurate to me, but what it does seem like is that what was working at first isn't working now, and the offensive coaches haven't been able to change or adapt to put the players in a position to succeed against what is happening to them.

That's a good point but I think the problem is that the offense doesn't do anything else particularly well. To me it seems like Musgrave is (or has) tried to change up the game plan (this seemed specifically obvious in the TB game where he tried to pick on a below average pass defense).

The short passing game and the running game are their strengths but there is no other balance. Some part of the offense is probably going to break down on medium/long plays. Either the line doesn't hold up, the receivers don't get open, or Ponder throws a bad pass. It's not necessarily that Ponder throws a bad pass every time, or that the receivers are blanketed every time, or that the line breaks down every time ... it just seems like if two of those points hold up the third doesn't.

I feel like Ponder needs to get better at play action too. A big part of the offense is the run setting up the pass but a lot of that doesn't matter if they can't run play action convincingly. Maybe it's just me, but that seems to be a weakness of Ponders.

[Mothman]

That's a good point but I think the problem is that the offense doesn't do anything else particularly well. To me it seems like Musgrave is (or has) tried to change up the game plan (this seemed specifically obvious in the TB game where he tried to pick on a below average pass defense).

The short passing game and the running game are their strengths but there is no other balance. Some part of the offense is probably going to break down on medium/long plays. Either the line doesn't hold up, the receivers don't get open, or Ponder throws a bad pass. It's not necessarily that Ponder throws a bad pass every time, or that the receivers are blanketed every time, or that the line breaks down every time ... it just seems like if two of those points hold up the third doesn't.

Exactly! That's what makes the passing offense so bad. There's a lack of execution everywhere.

The team is still faced with an awful lot of the problems it had last season: turnovers and execution issues on offense, shaky (or worse) QB play, o-line issues, lack of talent at WR, lack of turnovers created by the defense, breakdowns in coverage or against the run. They need better LBs, better WRs, a nose tackle, better play (or players) on the OL and a lot more out of their QB. That 5-2 start made it easy to look past just how much rebuilding still needs to be done.

[mansquatch]

Exactly! That's what makes the passing offense so bad. There's a lack of execution everywhere.

The team is still faced with an awful lot of the problems it had last season: turnovers and execution issues on offense, shaky (or worse) QB play, o-line issues, lack of talent at WR, lack of turnovers created by the defense, breakdowns in coverage or against the run. They need better LBs, better WRs, a nose tackle, better play (or players) on the OL and a lot more out of their QB. That 5-2 start made it easy to look past just how much rebuilding still needs to be done.

During 5-2 a lot of the current issues were not issues. The OL was looking much improved, LB were solid, so was the DL, and even the QB was looking like a decent game manager type. The defense was rocking.

That is why I think there is more going on than Ponder. The Defense is the same unit aside from the Cook injury that has played all thsoe games. AJ Jefferson isn't Cook, but he is playing well enough. What changed here? It isn't just time of possession either. They've been getting gashed by RB for the last 2 weeks in the 1st half and the 2nd half. Against TENN they completely stuffed CJ with their DL. What is causing this drop in performance?

Just a guess, but I think it is morale related.