Souhan: Vikings' scoffed-at style now NFL chic

[Mothman]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 71021.html

Even if the Vikings beat Tennessee on Sunday and improve to 4-1, we won't be certain that they have built a sustainable winner, but they will have taken another stop toward justifying their approach.

Just a year ago, they looked not just inept but philosophically flawed and anachronistic, like a shipping company that relies on horses.

Win or lose Sunday, succeed or fail this season, the Vikings look like they have a plan that doesn't feature rotary phones.

I enjoyed that new column quite a bit, although Souhan has visited this territory before:

Frazier's favored style on display

[Mothman]

On a related note:

NFL pundits wonder if Vikings' conservative QB play is Super Bowl worthy

If the Vikings intend to make a deep playoff run, they'll probably have to do it by bucking a trend that's almost become dogmatic. Since Tampa Bay won its Super Bowl, only seven teams ranked lower than 25th in passing yards have reached a conference championship game. None of them reached the Super Bowl.

The good news for the Vikings -- who are 3-1 despite ranking 27th in passing offense -- is that they share some commonalities with those seven teams, particularly in the way they run the ball and pressure the quarterback.

I think Super Bowl talk is premature just 4 games into a season but it's an interesting read anyway. Brian Billick makes a key point at the end of the article:

"Quarterback experience favors an Atlanta, Houston, Baltimore," Billick said. "If you're a betting man, you lean toward those teams, who are playing good D, running the ball and have a quantifiable quarterback. But with Ponder, that changes with every outing and the more experience he gets."

[jackal]

I think its too focused on QB and not enough on not over playing for players and building strong OL and DL and getting warriors on the field
instead of guys who only want to promote themselves as a brand and the flavor of the month player.


Don't get me wrong i love what Ponder is doing, but if our OL was like last year he would be picking himself off the field more than passing to our
wide outs.

If you listened to Spielman at the combine and the draft, he kept bringing up players who love the game and love football.


Well other teams were spending 60 million on one player we were getting Simpson who probably will have a year better than some of the
free agents.

The one expensive guy we did bring has been a complete waste so far. 25 million for nothing what a deal

[Just Me]

????

Both Billick and Gannon compare Ponder to Alex Smith in 2011, when he threw just five interceptions while leading the 49ers to the brink of the Super Bowl. And Billick cautioned that just because Ponder hasn't had to win a game for the Vikings yet doesn't mean he can't.

Did Billick miss our season opener? (or perhaps he meant totally carrying the team on his shoulders)?

[Mothman]

????
Did Billick miss our season opener?

LOL! Maybe he has a short memory! He must have seen it because he was in the broadcast booth for the game against a Indy a week later. I'd be amazed if he didn't watch (or at least know what happened) in the previous game.

[jackal]

Hey Billicheat how did you do in the last two super bowls buddy ?

Yeah when you don't know the other teams play calls its a little harder.

I hope that Karma train comes a soon for you and your players , you cheating lying piece of

[Mothman]

Hey Billicheat how did you do in the last two super bowls buddy ?

Yeah when you don't know the other teams play calls its a little harder.

I hope that Karma train comes a soon for you and your players , you cheating lying piece of

I think you might be confusing Brian Billick with Bill Belichick.

[Eli]

Just a year ago, they looked not just inept but philosophically flawed and anachronistic, like a shipping company that relies on horses.

Win or lose Sunday, succeed or fail this season, the Vikings look like they have a plan that doesn't feature rotary phones.

Vindication of the Vikings' organization is similarly premature. How about waiting until they at least win a single playoff game? That could be this year, could be next, could be years from now.

[Sutsgold]

Over the winter espn did an article using some type of data analysis. They projected that based on players age, key players such as qb, etc.. that the vikings would be the 31st best team from now untli 2016. So much for data and computer programs picking games. Spielman, keep on doing what you are doing!

[Rus]

I can't bring myself to hate Brian Billick like so many others can. He could spit in my coffee and I wouldn't get mad at him.

He was a very big part of 1998. In retrospect, when you think about the next 3 years without his influence, you can't help but think of Denny and Solly and wince. Brian Billick's offense gave me so much enjoyment that I will never forget for the rest of my life. Every time I invited one of my friends from college to watch the Vikings, they came away a Vikings fan. These were software and computer hardware/electrical engineers, cats that never, ever, thought they could get pumped from watching a football game and DEFINITELY not one featuring a team from Minnesota. I went to college in Klamath Falls, Oregon. Not too many 'Sota folks there.

Don't care if he cheated. Don't care what he did with the Ravens. Don't care what he says about the Vikings on TV. Doesn't matter. I can forgive him easily every time I dig up that first Packers/Vikings game where Randy caught those 4 touchdowns.

[Rus]

I think you meant to post this in a Falcons forum.

No, it's probably cool. We all should respect fan's opinions on this matter of premature expectations. Remember the 2003 season? 6 wins to start off the season...and it ended at 9-7. We're Vikings fans and we remember this sort of thing happening before.

[ChicagoViking]

Remember the 2003 season? 6 wins to start off the season...and it ended at 9-7. We're Vikings fans and we remember this sort of thing happening before.

The differences between this year's team and the 2003 team are night and day. That 6-0 Vikings team was a whopping +13 in the takeaway department after 6 games. They had forced 18 turnovers and committed only 5 themselves, but were still outgained in 3 of those 6 games. At times, the Vikings looked outclassed in the trenches and seemed to get by more often than not with timely turnovers -- many of them unforced. I remember having a conversation with my brother when the Vikes were 6-0 and saying to him that they may be the worst and luckiest 6-0 team in NFL history. I don't feel that way at all this season. The Vikings have looked like the better team on the field in all five of their games for the majority of each of those games, and, while I harbor no delusions that they are going to go 11-0 to finish the season, I do think they are a MUCH better team than that 2003 team.

[Just Me]

They had forced 18 turnovers and committed only 5 themselves, but were still outgained in 3 of those 6 games.

According to this they were outgained in 2 (not three) of the 6 wins. In addition, the two games you refer to are SF (who outgained them by only 18 yards of total offense) and the Falcons (who outgained them by 41 yards of total offense). To put it in a more "global" perspective: Take all six wins in their entirety, and the Vikings outgained their opponents 2244 yards to 1947 yards. Or 374 to 324.5 on Average (+50 yards per game). Special teams are not factored into those stats - that is simply offense vs. defense. I'm not arguing they weren't the beneficiary of a + turnover ratio, I'm simply pointing out that they outgained all but two of their opponents in the 6-0 run and they typically were outgaining their other foes.

To compare that squad to this squad: I think this squad is more consistent, but our first two games were "rough." Despite our win against Jacksonville, it is clear they are a bad team, and we needed a come-from-behind score to tie and then a field goal in overtime to win. Indy may be better than their record, so the jury is still out on that one in my book. San Francisco is a solid win. Even after that loss (for SF) many talking heads still classify them as the "team to beat" in the NFL. We not only came away with a victory, we dominated them in most phases of the game (our breakdown on ST apparent to all). Detroit. I'm just not sure Detroit is that good (their record certainly doesn't indicate they are). That said: it is a division game, and you can pretty much throw out the records when we play division games. They are almost always hard-fought contests regardless of the W/L records of both teams. Tennessee is a bad team that we beat fairly handily. We should have if we are a good team playing at home. (I'd argue we should beat them handily on the road)

So where does that leave my current opinion? Still undecided to a degree. I am encouraged by the SF and TENN games. I am thinking maybe Indy went down as it should have, and we struggled against Detroit and Jacksonville. I tend to discount the Detroit game for the reasons I mentioned above, but I still have a concern about the season opener against Jacksonville. I only hope that the team is/was young and keeps improving. They seem to show that from week-to-week. If that trend continues, I'll start to have more confidence and join in on the opinions that have us making the playoffs this year. Right now, I'm still watching.

Even good teams have an off-day and so I'm trying to determine after 5 games if early on we were "finding our groove" and now are moving full speed ahead. I like the fact that the Vikings have improved this year. They can lose the remainder of the season and still have shown they have improved. I don't actually expect them to "lose out," but predictions of 13-3 etc. seem very optimistic to me. Not saying it can't happen - Heck we might go 15-1 at this point, but I don't think it's likely. I originally thought a 7-9 season was doable this year. Honestly, if they keep playing like this, that assessment seems very conservative. But, Anderson was perfect before the NFC Championship game too, so I've learned to watch the Vikes with a slightly jaded eye. Even being the best, doesn't ensure success (the 18-0 Patriots are my poster children for that assertion). So will we be 9-1 or 8-2 at the bye? I'm wanting to see if we are 5-1 or 4-2 after playing the Redskins first...

[cstelter]

Remember the 2003 season? 6 wins to start off the season...and it ended at 9-7. We're Vikings fans and we remember this sort of thing happening before.

Ugh-- this got long-- I started out simply trying to make a case for how 2012 looks different on paper than 2003 for the Vikings defensively and how that will bode well. Then I started looking at the upcoming game and went off the rails in analysis. Anyway-- apologies up front for the post lenght and the rambling.


Here are some more numbers to back up why this year seems different from 2003. As mentioned, there was a massive turnover differential in the first 6 games that stopped. But if you look at the yards per play for total, passing and rushing for each opponent compared to that opponent's average for the whole season, you'll se that our defense was completely average at best for the first 5 games

Code: Select all

                         
                      Yards/Play     | Net PassYds/Att| RunYds/Att  | takeaway/giveaway
2003                 Avg  |  vs MN   |  Avg | vs MN   | Avg | Vs MN
Green Bay            5.8     5.06       6.6   5.9       5.0   3.26    5/2
Chicago              4.4     5.2        4.7   5.56      4.0   4.7     1/1
Detroit              4.4     4.44       4.9   5.35      3.6   2.9     3/1
San Francisco        5.5     5.63       6.3   5.53      4.6   5.8     3/0
Atlanta              4.7     7.86       4.9   8.19      4.5   6.11    3/1
Denver               5.3     5.01       5.9   4.94      4.8   5.11    3/0

The best showings were the first/last game where we actually managed to hold our opponents to fewer yards per attempt than they were used to. Notable good days (~1+ ypc less than average) were week 1 and 3 rushing defense, and week 6 passing defense. Week 5 was a notably terrible day on both passing/rushing. *All* other days were just mediocre (less than +/- a yard from the team's average)

Are the next 4 games worth of data all that unexpected?:

Code: Select all

                      Yards/Play     | Net PassYds/Att| RunYds/Att  | takeaway/giveaway
2003                 Avg  |  vs MN   |  Avg | vs MN   | Avg | Vs MN
New York Giants      6.5     6.72       7.6   9.41      4.8   2.9     1/2
Green Bay            5.8     7.27       6.6   6.78      5.0   7.68    1/0
San Deigo            5.4     8.32       6.4   8.51      4.0   8.11    0/2
Oakland              5.3     6.70       6.1  14.15      3.4   4.44    2/6

Great Rushing defense against the Giants, coupled with bad pass defense. Terrible run defense against Green Bay. Complete meltdowns in both for the following two weeks.

I can't recall if defensive injuries or other teams just working out our scheme were at fault, but it just got worse from there.

For 5 games thus far this year we have:

Code: Select all

                      Yards/Play     | Net PassYds/Att| RunYds/Att  | takeaway/giveaway
2012                 Avg  |  vs MN   |  Avg | vs MN   | Avg | Vs MN
Jacksonville         4.3     4.86       4.4   6.2       4.3   3.32    2/2 
Indianapolis         5.3     4.56       6.2   6.25      3.8   2.8     0/1
San Francisco        6.4     5.09       6.8   5.46      6.1   4.45    3/2    
Detroit              5.6     4.8        6.6   6.68      3.6   2.75    1/0
Tennessee            5.2     3.99       6.1   4.48      3.5   2.74    2/2

So after a rocky first game where we were bad in pass defense, but nearly 1ypc less than average on run defense, the numbers just keep getting better. Week two we're again a yard less per carry on rushing D while we bring the passing D to average. Week 3 we were more than a yard per carry in both rushing and passing defense. Week 4 was more like week 2-- strong run defenes with average pass defense. Finally last week we were again strong in both phases. All the while with no real turnover advantage/disadvantage.

Now granted, being only average at defending any team's passing stats is going to hurt us as the season wears on as teams become used to our schemes. But our run defense is simply lights out. Not *just* because we've faced 3/5 teams in the lower 1/3 of the league in rushing and just one average and one above average (OK, league leading). But accross the board we've outpeformed their average performance thus far (in addition to heavily contributing to their low averages as we are only 5 games in).

Next week we meet the #2 passing team in Net Yards Per attempt (7.4 NYPA) and the #3 rushing yards per attempt (5.1 YPA). This will be a great test to see if this defense is going to fold as we've seen in years past, or hold up to the decidedly better start they've shown than in 2003. If I had to guess, I'd say we'll allow ~4yards per attempt rushing and ~7.5 net yards passing per attempt.

We're a 6.3 Net Passing YPA/ 4.3 rushing YPA team-- so what has Washington done against such teams?

One thing of note, is Washington has not faced a rushing team as good as MN-- their opponents are at #18,19, 21, 24, 26 for YPA rushing (Vikings are #10). The best were New Orleans/Cincinatti both at 3.9ypa and then Atlanta at 3.8ypa against which Washington allowed 3.2 and 3.32, and 2.9 respectively. Running will be possible but tougher than usual. Maybe to the tune of 3.5 or 3.6 YPA?

So that leaves passing. Atl and Tampa Bay are closest to us in net YPA passing for Washington's opponents. Atl does a bit better at 6.7NYPA while TB was only 5.9NYPA. Against these teams Washington lost to Atl but beat TB. They yielded 6.5NYPA to Atl and 7.51NYPA against TB. TB Yielded 4.93YPA rushing to Wash and a whopping 9.51NYPA passsing while Atl allowed 6.14YPA for washington and allowed 7.8NYPA passing.

No matter how I stare at these numbers-- it's would seem to be our most challenging game since San Francisco. More challenging actually because SFO is 6.8/6.1 pass/run per attempt while Washington is 7.4/5.1 which appears to be a significantly stronger passing game. I hope we bring our A game. In Looking at Washington's opponents who have beaten them, St Louis would seem to be the team that most unexpectedly won. They won 31-28, yet turned the ball over 3 times to Washington's 1, allowed 6.07 YPA rushing, 6.79NYPA passing, but rushed for 5.59YPA and passed for 8.6YPA. Washington's defense failed in both rushing and passing as STL only averages 3.7YPA rushing and 5.7NYPA passing.

[Just Me]

<Long Post with insightful analysis snipped for brevity>

Great post! Thanks for the analysis. That is a better example of how "well" the 2003 squad played. It does explain (or at least indicate)why the Vikings went into "free fall" at the end of the season...