Vikings Free Head Exam (Vikes vs. 49ers)

[Mothman]

Yeah maybe that is an issue.
In general I am talking about the woeful lack of receiving production (by non-superstar receivers) our team has managed under the current WR coach and the current HC who has been with the team for awhile. A subset of that problem is the "getting open when the play breaks down", but it seems a nice litmus test/focal point for the discussion.

We were clearly on different pages. I was focused on that "subset".

[dead_poet]

The Giants comparison is not totally meaningless and was posted for a reason. Under Coughlin they are perennially drafting behind us and perennially finishing in front of us in a ton of meaningful categories. Even though they seemingly have as many - if not more - devastating injuries to important positions as any other team. In the area under discussion, they consistently have receivers (I really don't care if it's a FB) who seem to annihilate common expectations. From current stud Victor Cruz to the unknowns catching 17 passes in a game to Jake Ballard to Ahmad Bradshaw etc. etc.

I think it's important to manage expectations in regards to receivers and what they are asked to do in respect to their abilities. Just because the Giants are selecting after us, doesn't mean they are placing any less emphasis on the WR position. In fact, over the last couple of seasons they have placed a higher priority on receivers than we have.

Let's take the Giants' receiving corps and where they were selected in their respected drafts.

Hakeem Nicks (24) — First Round
Ramses Barden (26) — Third Round
Victor Cruz (25) — UDFA
Martellus Bennett (25)— Second Round
Domenik Hixon (27) — Fourth round

And let's compare that to that of the Vikings (I'm leaving off Simpson because we haven't seen him in regular season action yet and, to this point, hasn't entered the conversation. The same goes for Childs and Wright).

Percy Harvin — First Round (meeting or exceeding expectations)
Devin Aromashodu — Seventh Round (cut by 4 teams)
Michael Jenkins (30) — First Round (clearly has been on the downside of his career for the last couple of years and has underwhelmed BEFORE coming to Minnesota, especially given his first-round draft grade)
Stephen Burton (22) — Seventh Round

I don't think it's a stretch to say that the players that were taken earlier are naturally performing better, the exception being Victor Cruz. I think he's such a wild card an the exception to the rule that people place too much emphasis on him and his success when those players miss SIGNIFICANTLY more often than they hit.

Furthermore, Sidney Rice was productive as a Viking when he was able to stay on the field. To expect the production from Burton or Aromashadou that the Giants are getting (or got in one game) out of Bardon is not realistic given the perceived talent discrepancies. I see the Giants investing higher draft picks in the position (i.e. getting players that are largely more talented) and clearly have a better quarterback. When you pool that together, you should see better production, coaching aside.

I also think it's telling when the majority of receivers leave the Vikings they don't all of a sudden turn into production machines thanks to superior coaching. I can think of no clear example of a Vikings receiver that left and was as productive (or more so) but would welcome an example. Moss and Burleson are special cases and should be excluded from this discussion due to the nature of their departure. Even taking them into consideration, you couldn't make a case that their careers were significantly or noticeably better under different coaching.

I think the main issue in our receiver talent pool (or lack thereof) is in scouting the right talent in either the draft or free agency (Berrian) and committing the necessary draft attention to acquire more talented players. Does coaching play a part in the process? Absolutely. But the innate talent of the players makes a greater difference (in my opinion). Perhaps I'm misguided, but had the Vikings selected Cruz in the seventh round of the 2010 draft, I'm convinced his natural talent would have allowed him to rise to the top and not only make the 53, but make a similar impact to what we've seen him do in New York. Of course, quarterback play/chemistry also plays a part in that as well so it'd be folly to assume he'd be AS productive in Minnesota as he's been in New York.

I wish as much as anyone that our later-round guys turn out to be productive starters (if not full-blown impact players). But that's just not realistic. See below (worth the entire article read if you're really interested in diving deeper into this discussion):

about 6% of the players drafted after the fourth round from 2000 to 2010 - roughly 166 of the 2,779 players drafted - became strong NFL starters or more.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1180349.html

[losperros]

For me it comes down to which is more likely - the incompetent group of receivers at the pro level or the incompetent coaching at the pro level. Given the way coaches have been hired by this ownership group, I'd argue that the latter is more likely than it might be otherwise.

I wouldn't. I think it could go either way. But then, I probably have a bleaker view of this current roster than you do. If the day comes that Aromashodu, Burton, and Jenkins are heralded as crafty wide receivers that can beat coverages with their smarts and alertness, then I might change my mind.

OTOH, I'm not blown away by Zygi's sharpness either. I mean, the guy needs to read from cue cards to answer any questions from the media. And I don't know yet if this present coaching staff is going to be good, bad, or somewhere in between.

Blaming this on coaching isn't as far-fetched as you make it sound, Jim. Remember when Childress basically forbade Brad Johnson from audibling? That was hard to believe given Johnson's experience and the relative ineffectiveness of Chilly's playcalling at the time, but it was true. Remember when Johnson came out and said he and Chilly rarely talked? One would think Chilly as the offensive mastermind would want to be sure he and his QB are on the same page, and yet that didn't happen, either. It's not beyond reason to think that a coach might get something in his head and decide that's the way it's going to be in a particular situation even if it doesn't make sense to external observers.

That's certainly a valid observation, Edward. Chilli basically took away from Brad Johnson the only weapon BJ had left, which was his ability to counter-punch the opposing defenses with smart audibles. Johnson couldn't beat a defense with his fading arm so he had to do it with his experience, yet Chili had a problem with that. Plus, Chili jumped all over Favre for audibling, even when the audible led to a TD. Absolutely incredible!

I'm not sure yet whether Frazier and his staff have the kind of control issues or big ego problems that Childress did. At this point, I think they might be more amenable to suggestions from the players than Childress was. According to some of the players, such as Harvin, there is better communication with these coaches than there was during the days of Coach Clueless.

[losperros]

Don't even try to argue with him on this, there are a number of issues with this team it seems aren't coached. Or at least aren't focused on enough to make a difference. But for some reason the idea the coaches are to blame at all isn't a possibility. Skills like this aren't something players have, or don't. They're coached. And the fact that some players have it, and others don't on this team, make me wonder if those "better" receivers we have were simply better coached and able to overcome the lack of coaching they're receiving now...

This is not a put down but I honestly am not getting what you're saying. Maybe I'm just reading your post incorrectly.

Look at it this way. Some of the "better" receivers the Vikings have had in the past that would break off routes and very often find openings when needed were Cris Carter and Randy Moss. And no, it wasn't just coaching that made Carter and Moss so good. It was their set of skills, including their improvisational alertness. Only Harvin has demonstrated similar awareness, in my view.

I very freely admit that coaching could be an issue here regarding receivers helping their QB and a list of other things. But no way am I ready to buy that the mediocre talent level of this team's current group of WRs (aside from Harvin and Simpson) absolutely cannot be a factor.

[Demi]

I very freely admit that coaching could be an issue here regarding receivers helping their QB and a list of other things. But no way am I ready to buy that the mediocre talent level of this team's current group of WRs (aside from Harvin and Simpson) absolutely cannot be a factor.

I just believe something like this can definitely be coached. And if it is something that is emphasized, can easily show on the field. A brain fart now and then is common for bad players, receivers simply running their routes and figuring their job is done, regularly, shouldn't be. And at some point coaches should have been able to address it, emphasize it, and have noticeable results.

[Mothman]

That's certainly a valid observation, Edward. Chilli basically took away from Brad Johnson the only weapon BJ had left, which was his ability to counter-punch the opposing defenses with smart audibles. Johnson couldn't beat a defense with his fading arm so he had to do it with his experience, yet Chili had a problem with that. Plus, Chili jumped all over Favre for audibling, even when the audible led to a TD. Absolutely incredible!

I'm not sure yet whether Frazier and his staff have the kind of control issues or big ego problems that Childress did. At this point, I think they might be more amenable to suggestions from the players than Childress was. According to some of the players, such as Harvin, there is better communication with these coaches than there was during the days of Coach Clueless.

Well, they actually let Ponder audible, so that's a step forward from the days when Childress wouldn't let a Super Bowl-winning QB do likewise.

This article from today's PP also suggests the Vikings coaches are open to suggestions from players:

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_216 ... some-older

[Mothman]

[I think the main issue in our receiver talent pool (or lack thereof) is in scouting the right talent in either the draft or free agency (Berrian) and committing the necessary draft attention to acquire more talented players. Does coaching play a part in the process? Absolutely. But the innate talent of the players makes a greater difference (in my opinion). Perhaps I'm misguided, but had the Vikings selected Cruz in the seventh round of the 2010 draft, I'm convinced his natural talent would have allowed him to rise to the top and not only make the 53, but make a similar impact to what we've seen him do in New York. Of course, quarterback play/chemistry also plays a part in that as well so it'd be folly to assume he'd be AS productive in Minnesota as he's been in New York.

Well said. I'd add that in addition to committing the necessary attention to the position in the draft, a team needs a bit of luck, they need to be very careful about who they draft, and they need to retain good talent when they find and develop it. Three examples:

Luck: The Vikes committed a second round pick to a legitimate, talented NFL WR in Sidney Rice but his injury problems just made it too risky to retain him at the price he was able to command.

Who they draft: The team committed the necessary draft resources to acquire a top WR when they drafted Troy Williamson early in R1 but they chose to invest in the wrong player. Scouting, decision-making and Williamson himself all let them down and they squandered a pick that should have yielded a good-to-great starter at WR.

Retain talent: They were unable to retain Rice, for good reasons but they could have retained Burleson, a solid WR they drafted in R3.

I wish as much as anyone that our later-round guys turn out to be productive starters (if not full-blown impact players). But that's just not realistic. See below (worth the entire article read if you're really interested in diving deeper into this discussion):
http://cfn.scout.com/2/1180349.html

Thanks for the link. It was an interesting read and it reinforces how important it is to hit on those R1 and R2 picks and how fortunate a team is when they find a solid starter in R3 and beyond. Fortunately, the Vikes hit on the last first round pick they invested in a WR.

[mansquatch]

I read this a different way. A lot of this has to do with repairing what was basiclly 10 plus years of bad drafting. First under McCombs/Tice and then under Childress and the TOA. We are not a few years into the Spielman era and IMO we are gradually addressing the issue the team has.

OL has certainly gone from a game breaking weakness to even or possibly becoming a strength. To the point of the article on drafting %, that has been done with a mix of high round and low round talent. So kudos to the front office there.

The Safety position has also been a perennial source of frustration on this board for as long as I have been here. We now have some very young players at the position who are showing some flashes of potential.

WR, CB, and LB are the areas where we now need to find some talent to improve. I predict one of those 3 positions will see a flurry of top round picks in 2013, although I for one do not view our passing weapons as that bad. They are just non-traditional. We have one of the best slot weapons in the league and a TE who is going places. If Simpson can become a serviceable I would predict that we are less likely to draft here in the 1st round than say LB or CB. (Or DT) LB might be less of an issue too, Brinkley played a heck of a game on Sunday, he now needs to show consistency.