Confidence in Christian Part II

[Just Me]

Well, realistically it is NOT indicative of improvement in my world either, so go ahead and question my "objectivitiy" as well.

Then I do so, sir, question your "objectivitiy" (sic) or "objectivity" as I obviously meant it to be typed.

I believe part (most?) of what Demi is hinting at is something I also agree with - less than one game is a ridiculous sample size to draw any conclusions.
Best case you walk away from that game feeling positive about Ponder or maybe nonplussed. But no way is one half of one game indicative of anything.
Ponder could still end up with the lowest (or highest) QB rating this year. Judge his improvement over last year after 7,8, 9 games or so this season.

The humorous part of the above is that nearly everyone is expressing just what you did (majority feel positive about the Game or cautiously reminding others that it is one game (please re-read my earlier posts in this thread)) but the only ones who seems convinced that there is a definitive conclusion here are the ones who seem to suggest Ponder is not up to the task of being our long-term solution at quarterback. I am trying to convey that he had a Good Game, and yes, I feel it is indicative of his improvement and progression. I think I have been clear in my previous posts on this...

[Mothman]

Well, realistically it is NOT indicative of improvement in my world either, so go ahead and question my "objectivitiy" as well.

It seems to me that, by definition, it is indicative of improvement. That doesn't mean Ponder will be able to sustain that apparent improvement but he posted the best passer rating of his (regular season) NFL career. That's not conclusive evidence but it's certainly a sign or indication.

I believe part (most?) of what Demi is hinting at is something I also agree with - less than one game is a ridiculous sample size to draw any conclusions.

I agree but who's drawing them? One game is too small of a sample size to draw conclusions but it's not too small to be excited about. People are encouraged by the performance, particularly the way Ponder delivered when many probably thought the game was essentially over.

[psjordan]

It seems to me that, by definition, it is indicative of improvement.

Seems to me, by definition, it is not. So there.
Look, I am not going to do it but I could put together a tape of Ponder's best 27 plays from last year and run them against his best 27 from this game. Guarantee you that it will not appear 2012 is "an improvement" over 2011. Silly exercise but the key is sample size.

There is no statistical basis to believe that one half of one game denotes improvement over any prior performance. Emotional basis? Sure, believe whatever you want. We all do.

My jury on Ponder is so far out that we'll need two shuttle buses, three taxis and a train just to get them back here. IMO we are all allowed to be optimistic or pessimistic in the void of decent sample sizes. Which includes Demi's view AFAIC.

And holy crapsters Jim, TWENTYONETHOUSAND posts? You are the freaking man!!!!!

[Mothman]

Seems to me, by definition, it is not. So there.

LOL! I hope you crossed your arms and made a bug "huffy" face immediately after typing that. I like that you never take this stuff too seriously.

All I'm saying is that a performance like Ponder had on Sunday can be taken as a sign of improvement without considering it definitive evidence of improvement. I'm being literal about the definition of indication and trying to differentiate between an indication and a conclusion (not to nitpick but to make sure we're all talking about the same thing).

My jury on Ponder is so far out that we'll need two shuttle buses, three taxis and a train just to get them back here. IMO we are all allowed to be optimistic or pessimistic in the void of decent sample sizes. Which includes Demi's view AFAIC.

I agree but this isn't a really a discussion about how we're allowed to feel about Ponder. Everybody's jury on the guy should still be out.

And holy crapsters Jim, TWENTYONETHOUSAND posts? You are the freaking man!!!!!

Ha! It's that many, eh? I never pay attention to my post count. I guess that volume is what comes from working at home, being a fanatical fan and being willing to discuss almost anything about the Vikings!

[Purple bruise]

Heaven forbid if the Vikes lose against the Colts and Ponder does not have a good game. The "I told you so's", from certain fans, will be unbearable. For me, I expect lots of games that the Vikes will lose and Ponder will have sub par performances in. HE IS YOUNG AND IS A WORK IN PROGRESS. He is also playing, with the exception of Harvin, with average wide receivers at best. Look at the Mannings, Rogers, Brees, Flaccos, and compare their wide receivers to what Ponder has to work with. Again, look back at most of the top notch qbs and ad nauseum I will say that most of them started out with at least as bad or worse of careers as Ponder is experiencing.
My intent was to simply find out, from the horse's mouth, why all of the apparent disdain for Ponder and find out if there were any qualities about the kid that he liked.
I totally understand that this is an open message board and other people's opinions and comments are obviously what makes up the board. No one wants every one to agree about Ponder and his abilty or lack there of.
Any way, I think that this is a great board with a whole lot of knowledgeable fans and I really do delight in reading other fan's takes on the team. We are all Viking fans and hopefully will some day enjoy the Super Bowl victory that this team so desperately deserves after waiting so long to get.
SKOL Vike fans

[UltraNasty850]

I would like to see Ponder drive the offense down the field on their first couple possessions. It would "set the tone" early and force the opponent to change their game plan.

As there are benefits of scoring early, let me remind you of the first 6 games last year. We scored early and often in all of those games, and still found a way to lose. Winning and Losing has NOTHING to do with who scores first, its who FINISHES games. You can't come back after being down with 20 seconds left on the clock every week, but if it needs to be done it looks like Ponder shows some promise in that area. He posted his best passer rating (somewhere around 107 i believe) and ended the game with 270 yds. He only missed 7 of his 27 passes. Those are ELITE numbers. Sure we would like to see a few TDs on his stat sheet, but we had to get Adrian back into the game so all of the media and fans KNEW he was back.

Ponder is a smart guy. He doesent have a big head but he is confident. He is growing and learning how to be an elite QB. While I hate the term "rebuilding", I do think that the Ponder Project is the closest thing to rebuilding that the Vikings will do.

If Ponder can string together games like this week in and week out, we will NOT be in last place in the NFC North.

Rogers still scares me, but Cutler wont make it past Week 8, and we ALL know the Lions were a one-hit-wonder last year.

SKOL!

[vikeinmontana]

I believe part (most?) of what Demi is hinting at is something I also agree with - less than one game is a ridiculous sample size to draw any conclusions.

i can only speak for myself but i agree with this completely. but keep in mind that several posters were talking about how terrible ponder is before he even reached the podium at the nfl draft! they bashed him relentlessly before he took a single snap. they harped on every mistake he made during a shortened rookie campaign. to me...that was just as silly and short-sighted.

so now, ponder has played ONE game in a NEW season and by all accounts he played decent and won the game. i think that is all that most of us are saying. i for one am not suggesting we start his bust in canton. i'm merely suggesting if it's ok for people to talk about how bad the guy is before he ever wore a vikes jersey, it's certainly ok for some of us to enjoy what we believe is improvement and the icing on the cake was a win.

keep in mind, this team won't go undefeated. and in those losses ponder will have bad games. just like every other qb in the league. as i mentioned yesterday, this weekend ponder played better than most qb's in the league in many areas. and he'll have games where he plays worse than most qb's. but calling him a waste of a pick before he dresses for a game is every bit as dumb as claiming him the best in the league after one game. thing is....of these two options...i have only seen one done so far....

[S197]

Everyone has their opinions and I don't see anything at this point that can sway ones view on Ponder to date. The sample size is just too small right now. There's no stat, comparison, analogy, or anything else that is going to sway someone from their opinion.

You guys have every right to continue this back and forth, but IMO, it's an exercise in futility. Sometimes it's better to agree to disagree.

[Just Me]

Look, I am not going to do it but I could put together a tape of Ponder's best 27 plays from last year and run them against his best 27 from this game. Guarantee you that it will not appear 2012 is "an improvement" over 2011. Silly exercise but the key is sample size.

You are correct. What I believe to be the flaw in that comparison is the fact that you are going to take an entire season of plays (hypothetical number) say 540 because it's easy math. 27 plays out of 540 represents 5% of hIs plays. 20 out of 27 represents 74% of his plays.

It is indeed the sample size. I want to reinforce here that I'm not saying this game wasn't a fluke and that Ponder may turn out to be only marginally better than TJack. What I'm saying is that in this game he showed improvement. To conclude he is not improving is a greater stretch than a conclusion that he is showing improvement at this point. At this point, the only data I have is the fact that Ponder had a proper off-season and his preseason body of work +1 regular season game. These are the only comparisons I have to make with last years games.

Is he perfect? No. If you think I'm blind to his flaws, revisit the game thread where I posted he needs to stop staring down his receivers (he did do that a few times and I was afraid there was going to be an INT). I actually agree with Demi on that. And yes, he is entitled to his opinions even when they disagree with mine the same as I am entitled to my opinions whether or not that they agree with his.

I am encouraged that Ponder had a good game. He is going to make errors, all quarterbacks do. Maybe in time he will show definitively if he will be our answer or not. Until then, I plan to enjoy the good games that he has (and there will be more) and throw things at the TV when he has bad ones.

Edit: For the record: My vote was (and still is) he hasn't shown me enough to annoint him or move on from him....

[Demi]

what is your evaluation of Ponder then?

It's impossible to say. He played four quarters, for the better part of two of them he looked like he did at his worst last year. For the other two he looked like he did at his best last year. There's no way to gauge much of anything from this game, that's my overall point.

Heaven forbid if the Vikes lose against the Colts and Ponder does not have a good game. The "I told you so's", from certain fans, will be unbearable

You mean like a win against the Jaguars and Ponder does good. And the "I told you so's" are raining down from certain fans?

I am saying a passer rating of 105.5 for THE GAME represents a strong performance. It is indicative of improvement. If you cannot acknowledge that fact, I have to question your objectivitiy.

He had a couple strong GAMES last year. Which weren't indicative of improvement. You don't judge a player on single games, you need a larger sample size. If we get to week 4 and he's got a 105 QB rating, that's indicative to me of improvement. Heck, if he gets to 85+ I'd say he's improving. If he goes out next week and has a QB rating half as much, I'm not going to use that game by itself as indicative that he's regressed from last year either.

[Just Me]

If we get to week 4 and he's got a 105 QB rating, that's indicative to me of improvement. Heck, if he gets to 85+ I'd say he's improving. If he goes out next week and has a QB rating half as much, I'm not going to use that game by itself as indicative that he's regressed from last year either.

Fair enough. I agree that after a few more games we will have a more definitive indicator of his progress. (or lack thereof)

[Mothman]

QB coach Craig Johnson talks about Ponder's development:

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 16966.html

[mansquatch]

Seems to me, by definition, it is not. So there.
Look, I am not going to do it but I could put together a tape of Ponder's best 27 plays from last year and run them against his best 27 from this game. Guarantee you that it will not appear 2012 is "an improvement" over 2011. Silly exercise but the key is sample size.

There is no statistical basis to believe that one half of one game denotes improvement over any prior performance. Emotional basis? Sure, believe whatever you want. We all do.

I dissagree to some extent. The simple fact that you could compare one game's worth of good plays vs. a whole season would indicate that there is greater consistency in the making of said "good plays" in the recent perfomance. (The biggest thing for me was zero INT stat, and yes I know luck was part of that.) That increased consistency suggests, IMO, that Ponder is heading in the desired direction.

I do agree that one game hardly makes a meaningful sample and thus more evidence is needed to confirm the hypothesis. At this point, I veiw your criticism as more to say "It is one game, is it a legit trend or is it an outlier?" whic is a perfectly valid conclusion. However, I can also see where everyone else is coming from, it is exciting to see Ponder show he can have that kind of game.

IMO, the next two weeks will tell us a lot. Sunday we have a bit of a trap game, but one that is on the road. Winning on the road would be a nice confidence boost to continue to trend from last Sunday. The Vikes will need it for next week when they travel to Candlestick.

[CalVike]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics! All I know is the team won week 1 when it looked like Chris "Toast" Cook had blown everything with 0:20 left. For one week, it was critical we had Christian Ponder and Blair Walsh, because they won the game for us. Next week, the cast of heroes and villains will change. But it's exciting Ponder showed such poise and promise Week 1.

[J. Kapp 11]

He had a couple strong GAMES last year. Which weren't indicative of improvement. You don't judge a player on single games, you need a larger sample size. If we get to week 4 and he's got a 105 QB rating, that's indicative to me of improvement. Heck, if he gets to 85+ I'd say he's improving. If he goes out next week and has a QB rating half as much, I'm not going to use that game by itself as indicative that he's regressed from last year either.

I can't believe I'm saying this ...

That's fair.